[nkrisc]

This is what markets like Polymarket boil down to. Normies can't win. Some will, of course, but that's just chance and there's no way if ensuring it's you.

It's really no different than a casino: if you ever find yourself with more money than you walked in with, cash out and leave.

Best strategy for most people though is to simply not participate and you'll break even.

[cryptonym]

I fully agree with not participating and would go even further: it's far worse than a casino, which was already bad. It's not regulated. It has a stronger impact on the outside world. With bets you can put a target on people job or head.

[Bratmon]

You say that like it's bad thing, but really it's great!

It gives us normies a way to see what the powerful are thinking.

[kelvinjps10]

normies that don't enter the game, because the ones that do just loose their money

[conductr]

Except, the thing is, a decent portion of the population enjoys throwing money away in casinos. If they feel a similar level of enjoyment/entertainment from this type of market, then it's no different and they're playing for a non-financial purpose that your calculus isn't pricing in. Maybe a stretch but theoretically, if they enjoy it enough, it can serve as a much cheaper alternative to a casino and thus could actually have a positive net return to one's personal finances even while losing.

And, I'm not even contemplating gambling addiction. There's a huge market of people that just go to Vegas once or twice a year and come home thousands of dollars poorer. But they don't need it, they may not gamble outside of Vegas, or nothing that would signal an addiction.

[JumpCrisscross]

> If they feel a similar level of enjoyment/entertainment from this type of market, then it's no different

If Polymarket were regulated like a casino, I’d actually have no problem with it.

[cryptonym]

> I don't have a gambling addiction, I just enjoy throwing money away in casinos. I come home thousands of dollars poorer. It's a net return to my finances. Totally healthy.

Weird way to validate polymarket.

[kelvinjps10]

how can it be cheaper? people will spend the same amount or even more considering that is more easy to spend more since it's digital

[conductr]

It's all hypothetical of course but I know Vegas has some high table/game minimums and these markets can be pretty cheap if you just want a piece of action. Also, eliminates the cost of actually traveling.

Again, no idea if anyone sees this as a true substitute or not. My guess is not as Polymarket bets don't feel entertaining at all (IMO). So it's not filling that void for anyone, but it hypothetically could.