[tekno45]

any stats on your returns so far?

[pawelduda]

Turkey reported high winrate until Thanksgiving

[vessenes]

Falling victim to the classic fallacy. So sad

[syncsynchalt]

We call it a "black turkey event", nobody saw it coming.

[m-hodges]

Not my project, but author said on X:

> Why predict the future when 73.4% of all Polymarkets resolve as No?

https://x.com/sterlingcrispin/status/2043398710013595857

[gruez]

That logic doesn't work because not every bet have even payouts. If there's a market for whether a dice rolls 1 or not, the odds might resolve to "no" 83% of the time, but if it only pays you $1.1 per dollar wagered on "no", you're still losing money.