[YZF]

To figure out the leverage just imagine 50 fighter jets over your head each with 6 heavy bombs where their goal is to blow you up. Now argue that those controlling those jets have no leverage.

Bombing has limits but can also do a lot of damage. It's true not every single IRGC member or leader can be bombed out of existence. But many can. It's also true that some infrastucture is buried. But a lot isn't. Specifically all the energy infrastructure that accounts for half of the country's revenue and about 25% of GDP is easily bombed.

There is leverage. That said your leverage over someone who is willing to die and not give anything up is always somewhat limited.

Iran also has leverage due to its control of the Strait of Hormuz and its remaining ability to fire missiles and drones across the region.

The GCC and their allies has no problem flying drinking water in if that's really needed. But it's true that Iran can hurt them some more. They are sitting on some extraordinarily large cash reserves and other investments so they may be willing to take some pain. Supposedly some of them were asking the US to keep attacking Iran. Also keep in mind none of these countries have actively joined the war yet and that may change if Iran keeps attacking. They have small but very well equipped armies.

[acdha]

> It's true not every single IRGC member or leader can be bombed out of existence. But many can.

In the last half century, we tried that in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and now Iran. When is it going to start working?

The problem is that blowing stuff up creates enemies, not friends, so each time you kill one senior leader you create incentives for the other people those bombs killed to decide you’re worse than the target.

[leereeves]

In 2024, a survey by GAMAAN estimated that "A significant majority of Iranians (around 70%) oppose the continuation of the Islamic Republic."

Then the government of Iran murdered thousands to crush protests and retain power. Why would the people of Iran still be upset at the death of senior government leaders? (Apart from the minority who already supported the regime, continued to support them even as they killed protestors, and are very loud now.)

1: https://gamaan.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Iranians-Polit...

[acdha]

Yes, I’m aware. I have no love for the Iranian regime and would cheer their collapse if it lead to something better. However, bombing civilians will not make friends in general and in this case doing so on behalf of Israel is a gift to the IRGC because it supports decades of regime propaganda. Anyone who was inclined to say America cared for the Iranian people in February now has a mountain of bodies and rubble to make them reconsider.

[padjo]

What direction do you reckon support has been trending in the last month?

[leereeves]

I have no information about that, and of course no one currently in Iran would dare say anything bad about the regime right now.

However, I find it hard to imagine anyone thinking:

"I didn't like the Islamic Republic, and I was pissed and afraid when they killed thousands of protestors, but now that some of the leaders have been killed by the US, I've changed my mind about the Islamic Republic."

[Arodex]

>To figure out the leverage just imagine 50 fighter jets over your head each with 6 heavy bombs where their goal is to blow you up. Now argue that those controlling those jets have no leverage.

You have no leverage.

The Vietnam war ended only 50 years ago and you behave as if it never happened.

[general1465]

Furthermore Iran is mountainous country. Bombing Iran is as pointless as bombing Germany in 1944 - Everything important has been under ground and did nothing to limit industrial output of the enemy.

[arrrg]

The amount of suffering the regime in Iran and the US administration are willing to accept and can bear is probably wildly disproportionate and much higher on the side of Iran.

That also substantially weakens any leverage the US has.

A mere slight increase in gas prices and slight threat to the economy can already substantially weaken US will to fight …

[WarmWash]

Fighting people who think they are divine leaders with a mandate from God is the worst. No logic, no possibility of logic, and they will burn everything and anything to stay in power.

[mtlmtlmtlmtl]

Riyadh, a city of 7 million people gets basically all of its drinking water from desal plants in the Persian Gulf. If those plants get knocked out, they're just gonna "fly in drinking water"? So with some napkin math, assuming 1 litre of water per person per day(which is extremely conservative considering they're in the desert heading into the hottest part of the year), that's 7 million litres of water every day. Can they "fly in" 7000 tons of water every single day? And where is all this water coming from? I have serious doubts about Saudi Arabia having "no problem" doing this.

[swat535]

You clearly haven't learned your lesson from IRAQ, Afghanistan and Vietnam.

You can continue to nuke Iran to oblivion and it will not make a difference.

IRGC welcomes it, you think they care about Iranians? All you are doing is bombing hospitals, schools and civilian areas.

By the way, in all those countries, you had full air dominance, in Iran you barely have air superiority. The crowning jewels of America has been hit and many other aircraft shot down: F35, F15, multiple drones, etc. All your assets in GCC are heavily damaged, expensive aircraft carriers were hit and forced to retreat..

All the IRGC military assets are underground, air strikes alone will not penetrate it. Also IRAN has the proxies that will cause even more pain you for.

Now that you lost IRAQ, IRGC gained yet another militia.

You'll have to launch a multi year ground war, to even have a shot at attempting to take the nation.

I promise you that a nation of 90M people is not going to welcome you.