[ianm218]

> One would otherwise expect the layoffs to reflect the multiple and much hyped "step change" improvements over the past few years. Instead the chart shows a sudden plateau starting a month ago.

Can you clarify the theory here? So if there is a “step change” you expect companies to do layoffs all at once? How does this account for I.e. diffusion lag or companies deciding if it’s better to chase growth vs. capital efficiency?

[sublinear]

Yes I would expect a lag, but we've been hearing hype with every model update about huge AI productivity improvements for years now.

Despite this, the layoffs are steady over that time with no such spikes. If the goal was ever to cut costs, payroll is never spared since it's too big to ignore. Chasing growth is unlikely when lending and investment is tight. Why invest in other tech companies when you can invest in AI?

[ianm218]

I think your narratives are a bit mixed up. We went from science experiment ChatGpt 2022 to zero day finder that is too dangerous to release 4 years later. So whoever has been talking about progressive model updates has surely been correct?

[sublinear]

Plenty of zero days have also been found with brute force and random fuzzing.

I'm not downplaying the LLMs we have now, but none of this got started in 2022 apart from the hype train.