[skybrian]

A lesson of the parable about "crying wolf" is that cynicism based on previous events doesn't prove that the next event is fake. The people who ignored the warning may have thought it "most likely," but they were wrong.

[nothinkjustai]

Never use previous actions to predict future actions, genius advice.

[skybrian]

It’s more about when your priors are so strong that it’s not worth paying attention to a new report. Clearly not in this case.

[davebren]

The point of the parable is not about the problem of induction but about how lying erodes trust.