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by solenoid0937 71 days ago
When these models come out and/or the responsible disclosure period elapses, I wonder if the naysayers will admit they were wrong, or if they'll just continue naysaying the latest bit of news about AI.

In my view the naysayers always simply been moving the goalposts, and never admit when they were wrong. "AI just produces slop" -> "AI can't write useful code" -> "AI can't take SWE jobs" -> [we are here]
2 comments
jaredcwhite 70 days ago
Oh we are way-ay-ay past this line of argumentation. The AI skeptic community has been far more right than wrong over several years now, whereas the hype-all-the-AI-things crowd has been proven laughably wrong on a fairly regular basis.
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2fdsdf 70 days ago
And there were people like you claiming that the jobs of SWE's would start imploding the moment LLMs could generate sufficient code that could be considered production grade.

You, just like 'them' are no better. It would be better if all those on the extreme ends could be muted - the truth is closer to the middle.

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solenoid0937 70 days ago
Nearly all big tech code is AI written today. What about that isn't "production-grade?"

Didn't Oracle just lay off 30k people, Meta plans on laying off thousands more this year, Microsoft and Amazon have already done layoffs in the name of AI?

So at what point should naysayers update their priors? How many times must people be proven wrong to think "maybe I have the wrong perspective here after all?"

Full disclosure, I used to be a skeptic myself in the early days, but I think being a skeptic today is pure stubbornness, not rational.

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kajman 70 days ago
> Nearly all big tech code is AI written today. What about that isn't "production-grade?"

I do not think the recent reliability and quality of major services would be considered acceptable if it weren't for a domestic tech oligopoly systematically lowering standards.

The U.S. auto industry also shows that oligopolies can shut out competition for quite some time and steer their captive market into accepting mediocrity, but innovation continues anyway. It's quite the contrast seeing domestic automakers turn their backs on EVs at the same time the Chinese are advertising 10 minute flash charging.

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2fdsdf 70 days ago
With all due respect, you sound like a bozo - Ive seen you edit your post about 5 times.

What matters is the aggregate activity in the labour market - for which - the activity associated with demand for software engineers is healthy.

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