[OutOfHere]

For those who live in the red-pilled real world, just don't trade on something where controlling insiders (also with a potential conflict-of-interest) can beat you at the game. This is different from bets with non-controlling insiders with no conflict-of-interest.

[scoofy]

“Please don’t gamble except for entertainment purposes.”

– Las Vegas

[maerF0x0]

Isn't that nearly everything public?

[OutOfHere]

The key is avoiding the bets with controlling insiders, i.e. those that could have a potential conflict of interest. Even something as banal as weather data has some insider knowledge, but an insider has no practical control over it, i.e. the insider is non-controlling, with no conflict-of-interest.

[chrisnight]

Weather data in prediction markets can definitely be gamed. One example that exists in real prediction markets is that the contract specifies a single source as the source of truth. But that source rounds data during unit conversion twice (F -> C -> F), meaning there’s an unequal probability distribution, and some numbers have a 0% chance of winning.