[max-m]

I think the question was: Who gets the payout? The bet is: There will be a ceasefire. There was a ceasefire, but it was allegedly broken almost immediately after. So does that count as ceasefire or not? There are arguments for both sides, so you could also say it's a tie and neither party gets the cut and the bets will be refunded.

[weird-eye-issue]

You can just read the rules for that particular prediction on Polymarket yourself. In this case according to the rules it just comes down to whether or not there is an official ceasefire by a particular time. It does not say anything about what happens if the ceasefire is broken after that time so in that case it doesn't actually matter that it was broken.

[denkmoon]

Usually the market have rules that define the bet more concretely than just "there will be a ceasefire", and resolutions can be disputed where they will be arbitrated by the market operator. For this particular market you can see that here (https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-ceasefire-by), but I'll paste the current text too:

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

    For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.

    If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.

    Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.

    A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.

    This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.

So the real answer is, "whoever the market operator chooses".

[pcthrowaway]

This seems to involve there being an agreement in place, but not necessarily in effect or even followed, so the possibility of it having already been violated seems to be irrelevant

[CamperBob2]

They put a lot more thought into the terms than the Trump administration did, that's for sure.

Still: does the combination of a deranged Truth Social posting, an obviously-pasted tweet from the Pakistani government, and a 10-point list of debatable provenance count as "clear public confirmation?"

I guess so, sort of, maybe? Fortunately I don't have a 7-figure wager at stake.