[whimsicalism]

Your analysis also supports a covid trough, not a covid peak and certainly no covid effect. I agree with other commentators suggesting that flock cameras are not the full or even most of the story, but absolutely disagree with the GP that car break-ins are some identifiable covid phenom or that the decrease is merely a post-covid return to normalcy.

Hopefully there was nothing wrong with posting a news article with a graph instead of doing the data analysis myself.

[arjie]

I was avoiding getting into the specifics because rather than tea-leaf-reading a picture one can simply look at the numbers themselves and they cannot support anything but that the one year period immediately following the lockdowns was much lower than the surrounding years.

And I think it was great you shared the news article! For many others, analyses one does oneself are less believable. I prefer doing it myself to convince myself but I wouldn’t expect it to convince others. Here I did it because I wanted to know what the fact is and I always have trouble with picking change points on a bar graph without all the ticks marked.

I put it at this level because it feels supplemental to your link not because it’s a debunking of your comment or whatever though perhaps https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47690707 is the best place to do it.