[RiverStone]

We have limited data on this. There have been surveys, but survey data isn’t always very accurate.

Here was one survey that showed 81% disapproval of the Islamic Republic: https://gamaan.org/2023/02/04/protests_survey/

In a country of 90 million, if the regime has 20% supporters, that’s 18 million supporters.

Tehran population is 9 million, 20% of that is 1.8 million.

So it’s easy to understand why you might see videos of hundreds or thousands of regime supporters in the streets. That doesn’t mean they’re the majority.

[krainboltgreene]

Hey man, 60% of americans disapprove of the current government, that doesn't mean they want to nuke Washington DC.

[RiverStone]

All I can tell you is to go talk with Iranians. I don’t know where you live, but every major city has an Iranian expat community.

All I’m trying to communicate is the conversations that I’ve had with my Iranian wife, her expat friends, and my in-laws in Tehran.

[herewulf]

Maybe they should go be the boots on the ground for the next quagmire if it's so important to them? Commander in Chief Bonespurs and the Secretary of Booze can lead the charge straight up the Straight.

Or maybe they should just focus on being Americans in America and some day Iran will sort itself out without the US' "help".

[RiverStone]

It won’t just resolve itself, unfortunately. The last 40+ years have proven that.

A non-theocratic Iran is in the US interest.

If you give the Iranians arms, I’m sure they would be happy to fight. Have we armed anti-regime Iranians?

I do think we have an obligation to help. That’s just my personal opinion.

As an analogy: if your neighbor is beating his wife, it’s not moral to just put your earplugs in and go back to sleep. You have to take action.

[arbitrary_name]

you mean like when we deposed the Shah, creating the current regime?

you mean like when we invaded Iraq and Afghanistan? So many great examples of successful intervention to refer to!

you mean like Libya, right? or North Korea? should we fix them again too?

how... how do you hold this position without reading even just 20 years of history?

[krainboltgreene]

> If you give the Iranians arms, I’m sure they would be happy to fight. Have we armed anti-regime Iranians?

lmmaaaaaooo

[bdangubic]

why do we have a moral obligation to help? and why them? there are many places on Earth with a lot worse situation for citizens than Iranians, do we have a moral obligation to help everyone and prioritize?

[RiverStone]

Yes, we absolutely do!

We should prioritize. We have to be pragmatic and choose our battles. We can’t be everywhere at once.

Iran has destabilized the region for decades. It’s hard to imagine how game changing it would be to remove that.

[krainboltgreene]

I'm well aware of the insane perspective of Iranian monarchists in America. Frankly it's not really their fault, American interventionists have pushed them into this brainrot.

But having an opinion doesn't make it a good opinion and there is no way to say "please get my grandmother's blood on your hands for my insane vision of Iran" sanely.

[CapricornNoble]

Mint Press News has a good article about why Gamaan's methodology is unsound:

https://www.mintpressnews.com/gamaan-iran-polling-regime-cha...

[RiverStone]

Thanks, I hadn’t seen that article before. Interesting read.

My take is that GAMAAN likely overstates the opposition, but all surveys on Iran are imperfect, not just GAMAAN.

I know Pew has done surveys in Iran, but didn’t directly ask if people support the regime.

I personally believe that the opposition group is larger than the regime supporters. I think there’s enough data to infer that.

But I’ll also admit that there’s probably a sizable percentage of ambivalent/non-revolutionary Iranians who would just be satisfied with a better economy.