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by JumpCrisscross 74 days ago
> If the dollar stops being the reserve currency, the purchasing power of the dollar will crash

This is far from clear.

2 comments

The Federal Reserve's Real Broad Dollar Index (RTWEXBGS) is 113.51 as of February. Not saying it would crash losing all of that 13.51 excess overnight, but it's still overvalued against foreign currencies.
> it's still overvalued against foreign currencies

That would make imports more expensive and exports more competitive. Some pain, given we run a deficit [1]. But $50bn/month adustment in a $30tn economy is 2%. Not fun. But not a "crash."

(There is a genuine argument to be made that American voters have been rejecting dollar hegemony across multiple elections for a couple of decades.)

[1] https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international...

Is this not what the current US administration seeks? You can't simultaneously be the reserve currency and hope to be a net exporter at the same time.
Perpetual trade deficit is modern system of tribute.
> Perpetual trade deficit is modern system of tribute

Probably not. Equatorial Guinea, Palau and Kyrgyzstan run the largest current-account deficits as fractions of GDP [1]. (Current account counts goods and services.)

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_current_a...

Resource extraction... High value infra projects in, low value unprocessed resource out.

Edit: Palau is the exception, it's main industry is tourism. Wealthy westerners come and consume and leave. Palau doesn't produce anything so all that consumption must be imported.

US current accounts deficit ~1 trillion annually, greater than your counterexamples' total combined economies. This should be a clue it's not the same mechanism of action.

It would cause inflation, which would lower purchasing power of imports; It would raise interest rates, which would raise the cost of loans and debt for individuals; and it would make the Government getting loans much harder, leading to spending cuts and higher taxes. All of these things will come together to weaken the dollar, thus making it have less purchase power. Whether it's a crash or slow bleeding out doesn't make a difference in the end.