[tomtomtom777]

2045 A=~1.0 seems way off. CRQC is still a theoretical construct with hurdles to overcome. Yes, there is a significant risk that it will exist somewhere in the next decades, but there is also still a significant chance that it will be shown to be practically impossible.

[EthanHeilman]

That is not what I am hearing from people working on CRQC. A prediction of a CRQC with 10% by 2030 was made by own of the top experts in this field. 2045 used to be the pessimistic outlook by experts with a bunch of experts predicting earlier. Recent work has shown that CRQC is actual 20 times easier to built that previously thought, accelerating all timelines.

We are seeing significant progress in two different types of quantum computers, neutral atom and superconducting qubit.

No one really knows when it will happen, but the chance that it is practically impossible is held only by a small number of experts. Given what we have seen in 2026 has significantly shifted expectations.

[hatthew]

"Accelerated timeline" and "impossible" are not mutually exclusive. We may just reach the point where we conclude it's impossible sooner.

Not commenting on specific numbers/estimates.

[functional_dev]

Do you have a link to the paper showing the 20x improvement?