[adds68]

Europe seems to be responding well since the Ukraine war, the picture now is a lot more positive than in 2022. The UK has postionined itself well, even without the mass uptake of local generation/storage in it's domestic market.

[jmyeet]

I couldn't disagree more. I'm going to point to Gary Stevenson [1] for why. He could probably get to the point faster but here's the core premise: Europe responded to the energy shocks since 2020 by transferring the better part of a trillion euros to energy companies in the US and the Middle East, particularly for LNG.

Imagine where Europe might be if half a trillion euros was spent on renewables.

The core problem as he describes it is that European governments don't own these providers so it's a wealth transfer from taxpayers to the ultra-wealthy.

Back in the pandemic, Spain was one of the few countries that tackled the inflation shock in a better way with a windfall profits tax. Interestingly, Europe is talking about doing that now [2]. That would be smarter.

Energy prices disproportionately hurt the poor [3]. If the government owned or part-owned the energy (like Norway does) then you could offset that without burning cash to stick your head in the sand for a little bit longer.

[1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oi265I48MdI

[2]: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/04/europe-energy-windfall-profi...

[3]: https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2023/rising-household...

[martinald]

The UK had/has the exact same windfall tax on energy:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/electricity-gener... https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/energy-profits-le...

And the reason Spain is so well insulated is because they have limited gas interconnection so they have a 'captive supplier' in Algerian gas. Algerian gas can basically only go to Spain, Morocco or the domestic Algerian market. They have some limited LNG export capacity (which is growing and will significantly change the price Spain pays longer term).

[jmyeet]

Spain has the advantage that solar is very effective because it's further south than most of Europe. Solar now seems to be 20-25% of Spain's electricity mix (and rapidly increasing). As cost the projected costs [1]:

> We anticipate low solar capture prices of close to €25/MWh in 2027 and €20/MWh in 2028

> And the reason Spain is so well insulated is because they have limited gas interconnection so they have a 'captive supplier' in Algerian gas

Interestingly, this is also a factor in US pricing of natural gas and oil. The hotly contested (and ultimately cancelled) Keystone SL pipeline was designing to bring energy products to a wider market and ultimately to raise prices. Don't believe anyone who tells you oil companies build pipelines to lower prices. As an aside, different pipelines were built instead without the same controversy.

[1]: https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/spain...

[argsnd]

Useful background on Mr. Stevenson

https://www.ft.com/content/7e8b47b3-7931-4354-9e8a-47d75d057...

[blitzar]

Everyone on TV gobbing off about anything is a grifter.

[jl6]

Electricity prices in the UK are painful, and galling when set by the price of gas, but it’s worth remembering that this model and all this expense has bought a major asset that will only become more important and strategic.

The next milestones to hit are:

* A 10x increase in generation capacity

* A 100x increase in storage capacity

* A 1000x increase in seasonal storage capacity

* Electrification of heating

* Electrification of synfuels and synthetic chemical feedstocks

Full energy sovereignty is achievable within 10 years at wartime-spending levels. Probably 30 years otherwise.

Rehabilitation of nuclear is almost certainly required for the transition and a very good hedge / backstop regardless.

[pjc50]

Yeah, we're (UK) only just at the "occasionally cheap 100% renewables" state, and it's maddeningly slow progress. But it seems like a lot of things are suddenly coming online, like battery storage, and the Scotland-England grid upgrade will happen in the next few years. https://eandt.theiet.org/2026/04/02/ps12bn-plan-upgrade-scot...

[ErroneousBosh]

> and the Scotland-England grid upgrade will happen in the next few years.

I hope not. We're currently getting shafted by National Grid pricing, and this is only going to mean we get to pay even more for electricity where it's generated while the south coast of the UK gets it cheap.

[benj111]

We get that now. They were looking in to zonal pricing last year but backed out.

[rcxdude]

The transition will probably be quite nonlinear: getting from zero to a few days a year of 100% renewables is about as much effort as going from a few days a year to most of the year.

[7952]

Plug in solar could be like that.

[crote]

> Rehabilitation of nuclear is almost certainly required for the transition

Using nuclear means electricity prices will be set by the price of nuclear - which is even higher than the price of gas.

Besides, it is economically impossible to operate it as backstop as almost all of its costs are in paying back the construction loan: run it 10% of the time and its cost-per-kWh is increased by 10x, run it 1% of the time and its cost-per-kWh is increased by 100x. With that kind of budget there are suddenly a lot of alternatives to nuclear as generation-of-last-resort.

[adrianN]

How do you make money with a nuclear power plant when renewables deliver more than enough power 95% of the year?

[jl6]

Nuclear power buys you not just electricity, but also resilience and diversity. Even if it’s much more expensive, it can still be worth it.

[adrianN]

Resilience against what though?

[EliRivers]

Electricity prices in the UK are painful, and galling when set by the price of gas

It's painful indeed. Today, I watched the price go negative as wind and solar reduced the gas contribution to about 3% of the mix. As that gas mix rose to 5%, the price turned around and became painfully expensive again.

[adammarples]

The UK has positioned itself almost uniquely poorly in Europe. That is why its government bond prices are trading at a premium to the others.