[eszed]

> [50th percentile CS grads] are still in better shape than a 50% percentile humanities degree holder, who also is having the value of their skillset eroded by AI.

That's the crux of it, and right now it appears to me that the ability to write unambiguous natural language prompts - in a variety of contexts, not specifically heavy-duty dev work - is going to be increasingly valuable. The 50th percentile english / philosophy grad is better at that than the 50th percentile CS major - while, at the same time, the bottom rungs of the developer ladder appear to have been kicked out.

I'm trying very hard not to make this into a "who's smarter?" question. That's a well-trodden and pointless argument, particularly if money is going to be the measuring stick. Besides, if that's where we're going, the finance bros and C-suite win, and do either of us think they're the geniuses in the room?

But, we'll see. We're living in Interesting Times.

[bpt3]

> That's the crux of it, and right now it appears to me that the ability to write unambiguous natural language prompts - in a variety of contexts, not specifically heavy-duty dev work - is going to be increasingly valuable. The 50th percentile english / philosophy grad is better at that than the 50th percentile CS major - while, at the same time, the bottom rungs of the developer ladder appear to have been kicked out.

We don't agree here. I see no evidence that the average humanities major is better at writing unambiguous natural language, nor that it will be a partcularly valuable skill. Most people are incapable of understanding and describing a complex series of steps, including their side effects and tradeoffs regardless of the language used to describe them.

> I'm trying very hard not to make this into a "who's smarter?" question. That's a well-trodden and pointless argument, particularly if money is going to be the measuring stick. Besides, if that's where we're going, the finance bros and C-suite win, and do either of us think they're the geniuses in the room?

That's my point, there's no avoiding this. Standardized test scores used as part of college admissions are intelligence tests and income is highly correlated with intelligence. We have all these proxies that are providing the answer to this question.

And the hedge fund managers and CEOs of large companies are very intelligent on average (I'm sure some aren't but they are the outliers, not the other way around). Just like there are some very intelligent social workers, artists, and unemployed people, but the averages are what they are for various fields for a reason.

[eszed]

> I see no evidence that the average humanities major is better at writing unambiguous natural language

If you'd marked enough undergrad papers you would have. :-)

> Most people are incapable of understanding and describing a complex series of steps, including their side effects and tradeoffs regardless of the language used to describe them.

That's true!

But... The AI promise is that users won't have to do all of that part. They'll describe an end-state, and the machine will work out the steps needed to get there, asking clarifying questions along the way. If that's true, then skills like writing and interface design and "taste" and all the other "non-engineering" parts of making things rise in importance relative to the engineering skills that have been handed over to the machines.

That's a big "if", of course, and the machines aren't there yet, but that's what's promised. If it comes to pass, then I like my prediction (for, at least, the 50th percentile of both groups). If not, not.