[verdverm]

We are exiting a hype cycle, well into the adoption curve. Subscriptions were never going to last.

My next step is going to be evaluating open and local models to see if they are sufficiently close to par with frontier models.

My hope is that the end of seat based pricing comes with this tech cycle. I was looking for document signing provider that doesn't charge a monthly, I only need a few docs a year.

[alifeinbinary]

I'm developing software in this area right now, so I try a lot of the new models. They're not even close for coding tasks. It basically comes down to 26b parameters vs 1T parameters / quantisation / smaller context sizs, there's no comparison. However, for agentic work, tool calling, text summarisation, local LLMs can be quite capable. Workloads that run as background tasks where you're not concerned about TTFB, cold starts, tok/s etc., this is where local AI is useful.

If you have an M processor then I would recommend that you ditch Ollama because it performs slowly. We get double or triple tok/s using omlx or vmlx, respectively, but vmlx doesn't have extensive support for some models like gpt-oss.

[AstroBen]

Kimi K2.5 (as an example) is an open model with 1T params. I don't see a reason it has to be local for most use cases- the fact that it's open is what's important.

[Art9681]

That is just idealism. Being "open" doesnt get you any advantage in the real world. You're not going to meaningfully compete in the new economy using "lesser" models. The economy does not care about principles or ethics. No one is going to build a long term business that provides actual value on open models. They can try. They can hype. And they can swindle and grift and scalp some profit before they become irrelevant. But it will not last.

Why? Because what was built with an open model can be sneezed into existence by a frontier model ran via first party API with the best practice configurations the providers publish in usage guides that no one seems to know exist.

The difference between the best frontier model (gpt-5.4-xhigh or opus 4.6) and the best open model is vast.

But that is only obvious when your use case is actually pushing the frontier.

If you're building a crud app, or the modern equivalent of a TODO app, even a lemon can produce that nowadays so you will assume open has caught up to closed because your use case never required frontier intelligence.

[adrian_b]

A model with open weights gives you a huge advantage in the real world.

You can run it on your own hardware, with perfectly predictable costs and predictable quality, without having to worry about how many tokens you use, or whether your subscription limits will be reached in the most inconvenient moment, forcing you to wait until they will be reset, or whether the token price will be increased, or your subscription limits will be decreased, or whether your AI provider will switch the model with a worse one, and so on.

Moreover, no matter how good a "frontier model" may be, it can still produce worse results than a worse model when the programmer who manages it does not also have "frontier intelligence". When liberated of the constraints of a paid API, you may be able to use an AI coding assistant in much more efficient ways, exactly like when the time-sharing access to powerful mainframes has been replaced with the unconstrained use of personal computers.

When I was very young I have passed through the transition from using remotely a mainframe to using my own computer. I certainly do not want to return to that straitjacket style of work.

[verdverm]

The vision has been that the open and/or small models, while 8-16 months behind, would eventually reach sufficient capabilities. In this vision, not only do we have freedom of compute, we also get less electricity usage. I suspect long-term the frontier mega models will mainly be used for distillation, like we see from Gemini 3 to Gemma 4.

[verdverm]

first session with gemma4:31b looks pretty good, like it may actually be up to coding tasks like gemini-3-flash levels

you can tell gemma4 comes from gemini-3

[__mharrison__]

I recently experimented creating a Python library from scratch with Codex. After I was done, I took the PRD and Task list that was generated and fed them to opencode with Qwen 3.5 running locally.

Opencode was able to create the library as well. It just took about 2x longer.

[selectodude]

Which version of Qwen 3.5 did you use?

[verdverm]

which quant as well

[__mharrison__]

Not at my computer now, either 27 or 35b not quantized.

Next week I will be trying qwopus 27b.