[samusiam]

> Aren't they currently propped up by investor money?

Are Chinese model shops propped up by investor money? Is Google?

Open weights models are only 6 months behind SOTA. If new model development suddenly stopped, and today's SOTA models suddenly disappeared, we would still have access to capable agents.

[qsera]

>we would still have access to capable agents.

But they would be outdated, right?

Would an agent that can only code in COBOL would be as useful today?

[iugtmkbdfil834]

By six months. Surely, non-SOTA models can eventually get not outdated. And your argument ignores 'new model development suddenly stopped' aspect. If it stops, there is nothing be to be outdated to..

[lxgr]

> But they would be outdated, right?

Outdated compared to what? In your counterfactual, VC funded agents don't exist anymore, no?

Your argument, if I understand it correctly, is that they might somehow go away entirely when VC funding dries up, when more realistically they'll probably at most become twice as expensive or regress half a year in performance.

[Jensson]

> Outdated compared to what? In your counterfactual, VC funded agents don't exist anymore, no?

Outdated compared to reality / humans, their knowledge cutoff is a year further behind every year they don't get updates. Humans continuously expands their knowledge, the models needs to keep up with that.

[loeg]

Well, the Chinese shops are propped up by the CCP instead.

[samusiam]

That's true, but the "AI bubble bursts" scenario is usually tied to Western investors getting essentially margin-called. If that happens, the CCP won't suddenly stop their investment; Chinese models will most likely continue developing.