If it doesn’t understand anything why the fuck are we letting it write all our code when it doesn’t understand code at all? Does that make any sense to you? Does that align with common sense? You’re still in denial.
You gonna give some predictable answer about next token prediction and probability or some useless exposition on transformers while completely avoiding the fact that we don’t understand the black box emergent properties that make a next token predicted have properties indistinguishable from intelligence?
I'm letting it write (type out) most (80-98%) of my code, but I see it as an idiot savant. If the idea is simple, I get 100 lines of solid Ruby. Good, saves me time. If the idea is complicated (e.g. a 400-LOC class that distills a certain functionality currently scattered across different methods and objects) and I ask 4 agents to come up with different solutions, I get 4 slightly flawed approaches that don't match how I'd personally architect the feature. And "how I'd personally architect the feature" is literally my expertise. My job isn't typing Ruby, it's making good decisions.
My conclusion is that at this point, LLMs are not capable of making good decisions supported by deep reasoning. They're capable of mimicking that, yes, and it takes some skill to see through them.
Follow the trendline. It went from autocomplete to agentic coding. What do you think will happen to your “good decision making” in a couple years?
As of right now the one shot complex solutions AI comes up with are actually frequently extremely good now. It’s only gonna get better and this was in the last 6 months. You could be outdated on frontier model progress. That’s how quick things are changing.
You gonna give some predictable answer about next token prediction and probability or some useless exposition on transformers while completely avoiding the fact that we don’t understand the black box emergent properties that make a next token predicted have properties indistinguishable from intelligence?