> The ARR shows the extent by which total predicted COVID-19 deaths exceeded officially reported COVID-19 deaths during the period. A limited number of counties had ARRs < 1, which suggests that there were more officially reported COVID-19 deaths than total predicted COVID-19 deaths. One reason that a county could have an ARR < 1 is if death certifiers recorded people as dying from COVID-19 when they had COVID-19 but actually died from another unrelated cause.
Afaik that was a story that spread around, but has very little connection with reality. As i recall this was mostly down to people who don’t know how to read a death certificate misunderstanding what goes in the cause of death field. I.e. something along the lines of it would list the cause of death as “organ failure”, because that was what caused death - but covid caused the organ failure.
Open to a good source that says otherwise, of course
> The ARR shows the extent by which total predicted COVID-19 deaths exceeded officially reported COVID-19 deaths during the period. A limited number of counties had ARRs < 1, which suggests that there were more officially reported COVID-19 deaths than total predicted COVID-19 deaths. One reason that a county could have an ARR < 1 is if death certifiers recorded people as dying from COVID-19 when they had COVID-19 but actually died from another unrelated cause.