[ceejayoz]

> The pilots in Iran are decoupled from the bets on polymarket.

Why on earth would you believe this is true?

Pilots aren't idiots. They know something's brewing. That's inside info they can trade on, or call a friend or family member back home about. There've been plenty of indications of big betting market moves in advance of public announcements of things like this.

[randomNumber7]

So the pilot that is currently on the run in Iran magically connects to the internet. Then he decides to surrender or call in help based on the bets his friends did on polymarket?

> Why on earth would you believe this is true?

IQ above average.

[ceejayoz]

It doesn't have to be the pilots on the ground in Iran.

The folks back at base are gonna know quickly if they successfully get found. Everyone there'll know before it hits the media.

Or the administration officials in the Pentagon who get the news. Place bet, then leak the good news to the press.

[jMyles]

...is that even bad? It kinda seems good to have that signal before the military and media spin takes hold.

I was kinda on the fence about this debate, but your arguments have actually pushed me away.

[ceejayoz]

Yes, it’s really bad.

Now you have to worry about troops having placed bets on outcomes they’re part of.

“Oh shit, I think I see the guy… but I lose $50k if I call out because I bet he wouldn’t be found today! Better be quiet.”

They are also essentially stealing from the counterparty on the bet. Same reason insider trading is illegal.