[YZF]

What's the reliability of this reporting?

What we can tell though is that Iran is still firing missiles (including cluster munitions) at Israel's civilians and at gulf states. So the ground facts are that it can still do that.

We also have to remember that Iran has a large number of different missile systems for different ranges. It's mostly not the same missiles they are firing at the nearby gulf states as they are firing into Israel. Some of the longer range missile systems they have need to be fired from western Iran to make it to Israel. There's a lot of other nuance, solid fuel vs. liquid fuel, mobile vs. fixed launchers etc.

[rustyhancock]

I don't think we'll see anything close to reliable reporting any time soon.

The story of whether Iran had a nuclear program has been reported every which way but loose for the past 6 months.

By the time Trump started pushing that they were close to a nuke again, those that claimed he was wrong 6 months ago and the nuclear program was intact. Had started claiming it was in fact destroyed.

Gosh that sentence is hard enough to write, but the story is so contolvuted I don't think I can improve it.

[GolfPopper]

"Iran will have a nuclear weapon real soon!" is a claim that has been pushed, particularly by Benjamin Netanyahu for thirty years.

https://www.news18.com/world/weeks-away-by-next-spring-video...

[NickC25]

>The story of whether Iran had a nuclear program has been reported every which way but loose for the past 6 months.

6 months?

Try like 35+ years. Bibi has been pushing the "Iran is 2 weeks away from a nuke" narrative since the late 80s.

[CamperBob2]

That Iran had a nuclear program was not in dispute. It was regulated under international supervision based on the terms of Obama's agreement with Iran, which Trump promptly tore up because he has the mental capacity of a fourth-grader.

That Iran was on the verge of building bombs was far from clear. Khameini had previously issued a fatwa against doing so, on the grounds that it would be haram, or un-Islamic. All signs suggest that the IRGC was operating in full compliance with that fatwa.

I'm sure the remnants of his administration regret that now.

[YZF]

But the JCPOA had some big issues with it. It was time bound- that is it only delayed Iran's program ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_nuclear_deal ) and Iran got sanctions relief in return that allowed it to fund its proxies and pursue other activities not constrained by the agreement (such as its ballistic missile program, drones etc.).

Iran also restricted IAEA access to military sites while the agreement was in effect.

https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/revealed-emptying-of-th...

[defrost]

That's a fascinating insight into what friends of Bibi can do with photoshopped text on long range photos.

Doesn't include any 256 channel multi spectral radiometric data from ground level crystal packs though ... I guess they didn't show much of interest in the gamma spectrum.

[YZF]

We have two competing theories. One is that Israel is making everything up. The other is that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons. At least the second one seems to have some evidence backing it up like secret underground facilities with centrifuges, enriched material, and yes, that warehouse in Tehran. The theory that Israel is making everything up doesn't seem that well supported.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-50382219 "The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has found uranium particles at a site in Iran that had not been declared by the Iranian authorities.

A confidential report, seen by the BBC, did not say exactly where the site was. But inspectors are believed to have taken samples from a location in Tehran's Turquzabad district.

That is the area where Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has alleged Iran had a "secret atomic warehouse". "

https://www.reuters.com/article/world/exclusive-iaea-found-u...

"VIENNA (Reuters) - Samples taken by the U.N. nuclear watchdog at what Israel's prime minister called a "secret atomic warehouse" in Tehran showed traces of uranium that Iran has yet to explain, two diplomats who follow the agency's inspections work closely say."

...

"Those traces were, however, of uranium, the diplomats said - the same element Iran is enriching and one of only two fissile elements with which one can make the core of a nuclear bomb. One diplomat said the uranium was not highly enriched, meaning it was not purified to a level anywhere close to that needed for weapons. "There are lots of possible explanations," that diplomat said. But since Iran has not yet given any to the IAEA it is hard to verify the particles' origin, and it is also not clear whether the traces are remnants of material or activities that predate the landmark 2015 deal or more recent, diplomats say."

[defrost]

Iran has been pursuing nuclear deterrence by enriching for decades, the entire time I've been in and out of the country. That's a given.

Bibi and his tales that Iran is just a week away from an actual working bomb has been going on almost as long. Bibi - the guy with a secret / not secret collection of bombs.

The question of whether or not Iran was playing along sufficiently with inspectors when there was an inspection deal in place is what we are talking about here.

IMHO they weren't getting away with much, at that time Israel was making up claims that they were and media blasting.

That is all times past, of course.

It's also clear that once Trump tore up the deal they went (sensibly in light of everything it seems) back to unchecked enrichment, and now that they've been attacked during negotiations there's zero trust and it would seem certain that there is a real risk that reinvigorated hard core fanatics will set a bomb off in either Israel and / or the US.

Smooth move clowns.

[seanmcdirmid]

Isn’t this just weapons of mass destruction again circa Iraq 25 years ago? We had evidence back then also, it turned out to be fabricated. Are you sure Netanyahu didn't just need a big distraction to prevent from being impeached and sent to jail? And Trump didn't need a huge distraction from the whole Epstein thing? Because this war come out of nowhere and was way too convenient for them.

[srean]

To that add what Joe Kent and Tulsi Gabbard said about Iranian nuclear bombs -- no indications that they have one or are building one.

[YZF]

But everyone agrees that they have enriched >400kg of Uranium to a level that has no other purpose than nuclear weapons and that the remaining steps of enrichment are measured in days/weeks.

So something doesn't add up in what your references are saying. What is your explanation of the discrepancy?

https://www.sipri.org/commentary/essay/2021/why-iran-produci...

https://armscontrolcenter.org/irans-stockpile-of-highly-enri...

[CamperBob2]

Why in the world would Iran be expected to remain in compliance with the JCPOA after 2018, when Trump tore it up?

As I recall, they did remain in compliance for another year after that, given that it was originally supposed to be a multilateral agreement. But IMHO they should have put everything they had into refinement and weapons production as soon as Trump unilaterally ripped up the agreement. Instead they held back, and they are now seeing the result of that mistake.

None of this would be happening if Iran had actually done what Israel assured us they were doing.

[YZF]

You're asking why wouldn't they pursue nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles to deliver them? Why should they? Don't you think as a country they should have some other priorities? Like ensuring Tehran has water? So because Trump tore up the agreement (and the US was sanctioning them anyways for their ballistic missile program and other reasons) that's somehow justification? Trump tore up the agreement because it would enable them to get there anyways and Iran refused to sign an agreement that would prevent them from getting there.

The JCPOA would have expired in 2025 anyways assuming that they even meant to observe it in the first place.

Your last statement isn't as solid as you think it is. Iran hasn't gotten to a point where they have nuclear weapons mounted on ballistic missiles not because they didn't want to but because they were unable to get to that or were concerned that getting closer would invite the same attack we're seeing today.

[srean]

Oh shucks! military intelligence and 19 different intelligence gathering agencies are such nincompoops that they completely missed what an expert HN commenter of sparkling genius pointed out.

I don't have the expertise to know what use its for, but I suspect the agencies assesment was informed bybthe knowledge of 60% enriched uranium.

It's used for subs btw and maybe they felt they needed a nuclear one to secure Hormuz.

[YZF]

I get it. So according to you Iran is building nuclear subs. JFYI it takes 4-5Kg of material for a nuclear sub reactor. So according to you they're building 100 nuclear submarines.

Got it genius. But hey, by the trust you put in Joe Kent and Tulsi Gabbard we already knew you were a genius. Didn't need the additional observation about Iran building 100 nuclear submarines to secure Hormuz.

[scns]

> which Trump promptly tore up because he has the mental capacity of a fourth-grader.

That would be an insult to fourth graders IMO, my son happens to be one.

[CamperBob2]

Yeah, valid point, I was out of line there. Apologies.

[defrost]

I do a mild bit of environmental geophysical radiometrics, that took me to Iran decades ago - it's not a new thing, they've been edging having nuclear deterrance for a good while.

Trump ripped up the monitoring agreement - that was unquestionably stupid.

He attacked Iran during talks to get that back on track .. that was unbelievably stupid (see: current world state).

Had he agreed to have in country monitoring again and had the USofA simply waited it was probable the old hard line core would have withered in time.

That's certainly not on the table now, the fanatics are dug in and feel fully justified. On both sides.

Incapable of The Deal.