[pinkmuffinere]

> That implies that it is ridiculously easy to be right when everyone else is wrong

I think this true but misleading — conditioned on other people going with the herd in the wrong direction, it is easy to be right. However, often the herd is going in a right (or at least acceptable) direction. The continual effort to check if the herd is going in the right direction _is not_ easy. If a magic eight ball could alert you “hey the herd is wrong right now, take a closer look”, that would be great! But we have no such magic eight ball.

[wredcoll]

Very often the fact that the herd is going in that direction causes it to become the right direction, e.g. the stock market.

[qsera]

>magic ball

The comment mentioned it..

>principle-based analysis..