[tliptay]

Grok: lots of competitors & my 4th choice in LLM models.

Starship: zero competitors & potentially makes humans inter-planetary.

Seems crazy if investors put more value on Grok.

[germinalphrase]

“potentially makes humans inter-planetary”

What is the realistic, non-science fiction appeal of this?

[stouset]

I would wager minerals mining and tourism are probably the only meaningful revenue sources in our lifetimes.

[dh2022]

Tourism to Mars and back (this is the easiest interplanetary travel) means years confined in a space rocket just to circle around Mars and get back (it is not possible to land on Mars and get back). Not that appealing…

[stouset]

I know the GP mentioned making humans interplanetary, but I mostly just interpreted this as “more spacefaring”. By tourism I really just meant something along the lines of orbiting hotels.

[guzfip]

Don’t worry man, the LLM’s will invent FTL travel before 2030. Trust me.

[ant6n]

Going to orbit is actually useful already, cf starlink

[stouset]

Yeah, I meant in addition to what we’re already doing.

I do think that will reach diminishing returns at some point. Kessler syndrome is a real thing for long-term higher orbits.

[compiler-guy]

These premises may or may not make sense, but the thing that matters is capturable revenue.

Humans being interplanetary would be an amazing technical tour de force. But relatively speaking, there isn’t much revenue there.

[malfist]

These premises may or may not make sense, but the thing that matters is capturable revenue.

European settlers being on the north american continent would be an amazing technical tour de force. But relatively speaking, there isn't much revenue there.

[WalterBright]

Jamestown was a failure.

The Pilgrims starved their first year.

[malfist]

Okay? The US is the largest country market in the world.

[prewett]

I'm not sure that the continental Colonies brought in much revenue, though. The individual colonists could do quite well, but viewed as an financial investment for the British Crown (which they were not, but that's the OP's analogy) I don't think they were very good. Plus, when they wanted to extract revenue via taxes, the Colonies revolted. Eight years of war probably cost a pretty penny, too.

(Sourcing my claim is difficult. I include this reference [1], which says that the Caribbean colonies were more profitable than all the continental colonies together. It doesn't comment on the cost of the war.)

[1] https://courses.lumenlearning.com/suny-ushistory1ay/chapter/...

[WalterBright]

America became a success much later.

[bumby]

I think you are in agreement. The poster you replied to seem to insinuate that immediate revenue (in the Americas/space) isn't the best indicator of latter successful pioneering markets.