[JollySharp0]

Doomers IMO are just click baiting.

There is a saying that is often trotted out my economists "That the cure for high prices, is high prices".

There is a consumer market and business need for DRAM outside of AI. Someone will fulfil the need as there is a high incentive to. It just going to take a bit of time for this to happen. My equipment is going to be fine for another few years. So I am going to just hang tight and make do with what I got for now.

[Chyzwar]

Main producers actually reduced dram output in 2026. When you have few players with very high capital cost you will end up with cartels like light bulb cartel.

[JollySharp0]

Someone will come in when the price goes up enough. It will take time, but it will happen. What people are complaining about is that the time for this to happen is too long.

Oh look, there is a player coming into the market it seems:

https://economy.ac/news/2026/02/202602288291#:~:text=If%20eq...

EDIT: In fact many other chinese companies are now expanding into DRAM because of the high prices. Which confirms exactly what I said.

[andrekandre]

  > chinese companies are now expanding into DRAM because of the high prices

a good sign, but im guessing at some point these companies are gonna be tariffed heavily...

[jeromegv]

Reminder the whole world is not the United States of America. While you make the choice of voting for someone who thinks tariffs are good for the local market, no other country joined your bandwagon.

[FpUser]

>"a good sign, but im guessing at some point these companies are gonna be tariffed heavily..."

In the US. The rest might do the other way. The US of course will try to do some arm twisting. Hopefully the world can learn to fight back.

[JollySharp0]

Maybe they will. However people often claim that there won't be anyone to want to enter the market to take advantage of high DRAM prices when if they spent two minutes doing a web search they would discover that isn't true.

[dwattttt]

> Someone will fulfil the need as there is a high incentive to

And those uses which fall short of the new threshold, e.g. hobbyist SBCs, slowly fall away.

[JollySharp0]

In reality were they going to survive anyway? I would wager likely not.

Raspberry PI is the defacto standard for SBCs. Almost all the other SBCs had significant problems usually around software support and also third party support e.g. Hats, cases etc.

[bee_rider]

I’m just going to try and hang tight as well. But I do wonder if DRAM companies should or should not respond to this pricing situation. The actual AI model training companies buying all the RAM aren’t profitable yet, right? It’s all investment, which can dry up at the drop of a hat.

[Forgeties79]

So are AI evangelists to be fair.

[JollySharp0]

It is almost as if two or more things can be true at the same time.

[Forgeties79]

I’m not going to argue my comment was particularly substantive but these kinds of rude, canned meme-responses are not really appropriate here.

[xenadu02]

> Someone will fulfil the need as there is a high incentive to.

Unless the capital cost to compete is too high and the risk of the existing manufacturers undercutting you is very real. Plus it can take 5-10 years or more to build a new fab, debug/iterate your process, then start shipping product.

Markets are prone to natural distortions. This is one form of that. It can be perfectly natural for all potential competitors to choose not to compete no matter how much demand exists.

Frankly I'd expect nationalization of some of the DRAM makers before we see the rise of useful competitors. The more likely scenario is government pressure, up to and including arresting executives, to rattle the cages of the existing players who are way better placed to expand production quickly for relatively low capex. Not that I think any action is likely in the short term. My guess is the existing players are betting on an AI bubble pop so they don't see the use in really expanding capacity only to be left with idle fabs later. None of us really knows.