[zimpenfish]

> This is making a pretty big assumption that the long-term US energy mix is going to stay the way it is.

It's the stated goal of one of the parties to keep or increase fossil fuel usage, isn't it?

> Meanwhile the US administration flips parties every four to eight years

Magic 8 Ball says "yeah, in the past, 2028 isn't looking good though"

> next time they're Democrats they'll be trying to hasten that result

Which will be blocked and/or immediately overturned by the current/next Republic Congress/Senate/SCOTUS/President.

[bluGill]

It might be the goal - but there are a lot of other factors than just one party.

[AnthonyMouse]

> It's the stated goal of one of the parties to keep or increase fossil fuel usage, isn't it?

The stated goal of the same party is to have "cheap energy" and the way voters judge is by things like how much they're paying for electricity. Which means their incentive is to make a lot of noise about how much they hate windmills and love coal while not actually preventing data center companies from building new solar farms to power them. One of their most significant benefactors is also the CEO of the largest domestic electric car company.

> Magic 8 Ball says "yeah, in the past, 2028 isn't looking good though"

Two years is forever in politics. We also have the leader of the Republican party doing all the pandering he can right now because he's trying to sustain a majority in the midterms, whereas in 2028 he can't run, and what's Trump going to do in the intervening two years during which he has no personal stake in the next election?

> Which will be blocked and/or immediately overturned by the current/next Republic Congress/Senate/SCOTUS/President.

That's not what happened last time. The electric car subsidies were introduced in 2008 and sustained until 2025.

We're also at the point where these things are going to get rapidly adopted during any period without active resistance to them.

How many years of the majority of new vehicles being electric or plug-in hybrids would it take before there are enough in the installed base to cause a long-term reduction in petroleum demand, and in turn a reduction in the economic and political power of the oil companies? Also notice that this still happens if Asia and Europe adopt electric vehicles regardless of whether or to what extent the US does, since it's a global commodity market.