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by SideburnsOfDoom 72 days ago
I have seen the same from other sources

https://acoup.blog/2026/03/25/miscellanea-the-war-in-iran/

> This is the second sudden bombing campaign the country has suffered in as many years – they do not want there to be a third next year and a fourth the year after that. But promises not to bomb them don’t mean a whole lot: establishing deterrence here means inflicting quite a lot of pain. In practice, if Iran wants future presidents not to repeat this war, the precedent they want to set is "attacking Iran is a presidency-ending mistake." And to do that, well, they need to end a presidency or at least make clear they could have done.

Can they do that: yes, keep Hormuz shut until much closer to November, and "the economic and political fallout will be too big."
1 comments
doe88 72 days ago
While it can very well be true, I wonder if we don't exagerate the will of the iranian regime and its ablity in the current time to think this far ahead. I see them more in survival mode, I'm not sure they fight for future deterence, maybe the goals align currently but seems to me to be happenstance. They seem resilient but I wonder how much they would be close of falling. Of course, I wouldn't have done this war, and I certainly would stop it now.
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SideburnsOfDoom 72 days ago
> They seem resilient but I wonder how much they would be close of falling

While neither of us have any special insight into that, and no-one has certainty, I urge you to read the essay linked, as this topic is in fact discussed with historic examples. "There is a frequent mistake, often from folks who deal in economics, to assume that countries will give up on wars when the economics turn bad ... There is a great deal of ruin in a nation."

You are right that the the Iranian regime's short and longer term goals align. But, happenstance or not, they are aligned and likely will stay that way.

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le-mark 72 days ago
> I wouldn't have done this war, and I certainly would stop it now.

That’s the thing there is no stopping it now. Trump walks away and Iran taxes every barrel that goes through the straight. There is no return to normal.

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SideburnsOfDoom 72 days ago
> That’s the thing there is no stopping it now. Trump walks away and ...

Right, Short of unconditional surrender, it is very hard for one party in a war to just end it without the other side also agreeing to cease. Otherwise, walking away just lets them target your back.

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