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by llm_nerd 76 days ago
China is not going to militarily take over Taiwan. The most likely outcome now is a "three state" China where it joins the fold voluntarily and becomes a puppet state of China. Given the way the world has gone, it's the only rational choice.
2 comments

Given what happened to Hong Kong, that is not an option that Taiwan is going to seriously consider - not for the next 50 years or so.
Seriously,Taiwan have to consider
It's not possible in Taiwan's current political/social climate. I'm not so confident to say 50 years, but 20+ feels conservative.
You say this, but I’ve watched American political culture across the spectrum evolve a ton within that time in ways I’d never thought I’d see.
I am not sure why you are being downvoted. People here are acting like Taiwan is made of white-anglosaxon people; whereas if you were to visit, it’s way more Chinese and less Western than Hong Kong even after its degradation.

Most people in Taiwan want to be independent but given a choice between a Gaza scenario and soft-rule from the CCP, they’ll pick the latter.