[lnfromx]

Okay lets suppose all those companies are profitable if training would stop today. What if token demand is shrinking ? I think big parts of the current demand is artificially build by e.g. FOMO and marketing without real value generated by them. There is no indication in economic data about some productivity boom resulting from AI usage. Next thing is Energy costs - that will soon eat into profitability too. I don't see how this bubble can't burst.

[martinvol]

I don't think token demand will shrink because we're still just learning how to use it, demand will skyrocket. The problem is what price we'll be willing to pay for it, specially if competition keeps soaring.

[lnfromx]

But are we really still learning ? I feel like we already converge to a set of use cases. Also I am always wondering if LLMs are what they promise to be, why is it so difficult to find sources of real (measurable) value ? Wouldn't a disillusion of those overpromises trigger a reduction in demand ?

[martinvol]

if they have the capital they can't risk but keep training, if someone comes up with a marginally better model than them then everyone will migrate and their business crashes down. Only big tech is in a position to take that risk.