[dash2]

Is that right? I think that you can serve tokens without training the next models. It would be bad strategy, but it would work. So it's an important question, are they covering their operating expenditure? If they are the business has legs (and it will be worth spending a lot to train the next models). If not, maybe not.

[camdenreslink]

If a major model provider were to just halt progress on developing new and improved models, the open weight alternatives would catch up in a couple years.

They would have a period of great margin, followed by possibly zero margin as enterprises move to free options.

They would have to come up with a lot of great products around the inferior models to justify charging at that point.

[leoc]

Also, an out-of-date model which doesn't know about last year's world events, hit songs and new JS libraries is a depreciating asset even before you consider low-cost competitors catching up. So you'd presumably have to do some training just to keep the model up to date at the current quality level (unless you completely give up and just sweat the assets). And on the other side of that coin: over the next few years, do the latest, biggest models continue to generate user-perceived real-world improvements sufficient to keep users wanting the latest and greatest?

[dash2]

> If a major model provider were to just halt progress on developing new and improved models, the open weight alternatives would catch up in a couple years.

That's why it would be bad strategy.

[yorwba]

There are companies that already do nothing but serve tokens using models trained by others. Just running infrastructure and collecting a reasonable fee for their troubles. It's only a bad strategy if you want to claim to investors that you'll gain monopoly market share if only they could give you a few more billion dollars.

[chasd00]

i don't think it will work, it's too easy to switch models. When google comes out with a new model people will just switch. I think Google wins in the long run, they have the money to just wait until everyone else goes bankrupt and they also have the Apple contract and therefore the mobile market.

[leoc]

And apparently the most efficient training and inference thanks to their TPUs, IIUC?