> Depends on the context. We certainly knew nobody else had nukes.
You wouldn't be able to know this over the vast distances of the universe.
People are arguing two contradictory things: these are unfathomable alien civilizations with motivation and timescale we cannot comprehend, but we would perfectly understand their tech level, location, and capability of striking back.
It doesn't add up. It's a scifi premise needed for interesting plot conflict.
Four years is plenty of time to start launching. Also, MAD incentivizes disclosure. What would be the point of having secret nukes? Openly having them is the only way to stop the US using its nukes to stop your nuke program, in this scenario.
You wouldn't be able to know this over the vast distances of the universe.
People are arguing two contradictory things: these are unfathomable alien civilizations with motivation and timescale we cannot comprehend, but we would perfectly understand their tech level, location, and capability of striking back.
It doesn't add up. It's a scifi premise needed for interesting plot conflict.