| So we're just going to hand the world over to everyone who 1) is not competent (were not educated, and generally can't predict the outcome of their actions) 2) were not driven enough at least gain basic competency (so in other words: you ask them to do something and the odds of them still thinking about that 5 minutes later are pretty bad) 3) have no intention to change that What do you think will happen? What is going to make these people brilliant hires? Docters, lawyers, accountants ... are at their best when they have to work adversarially, which is something LLM models really, really suck at. I think instead we'll see the same as we've seen in IT. Destruction of entry-level jobs, but "seniors" will command bigger and bigger premiums because of two big reasons: a) LLMs amplify their abilities greatly. 1 competent accountant can now do taxes of 100 people well with LLM help. But 10 incompetent accountants (either because they're actually bad, but more likely because some CEO decided to "just do it himself" with LLM help) still only deliver a single product: catastrophe. b) If a competent person, with or without LLM help, has to adversarially deal with an incompetent person (extreme example: in court), the senior person will always come out way ahead. Doctors are adversarial versus health problems (disease, symptoms, government ...) and a little bit versus patients. Lawyers are of course adversarial. Accountants have to make intelligent and consistent choices with particular goals where the choice of how to classify things isn't clear, sometimes literally adversarially (e.g. keeping TWO government tax departments happy at the same time about the same transactions). And so on and so forth. Over time, what will happen is that AIs will simply get captured by governments. They will make the game impossible, while only giving their own LLMs the required information not to screw up company taxes etc. This is really the way society worked for millenia now. |