[thrownawaysz]

>This could easily spiral out of control and cause a level of suffering across the world (esp the global south) most of us on this forum have not lived to see.

Daily anxiety attack thanks. As a european I think we are way too vulnerable. Countries divided, rich getting richer, more and more poor people who can barely afford food, and that's in Europe let alone talk about what happens with the poor in Africa and Asia.

Sooner or later we will need a global reset but that sounds worse than everything else

[kpil]

We don't "need a global reset"

It's an apocalyptical mind-bug. All times have an eschatology - ours seems to be climate collapse. It used to be nuclear war.

The media is selling a story. In reality everything is still getting better. People are healthier, richer, and better off in almost every measurable way, all over the world, including Africa and Asia.

Yes, there are some dark clouds. A long list. But the problems - even a long war in the middle east, are bumps in the road, not a cliff. If the clouds turns out to be a really bad storm, people will buckle down and sort it.

[dwroberts]

> ours seems to be climate collapse. It used to be nuclear war

Except climate collapse is actually happening already, gradually.

There were escalating tensions during the Cold War, but it wasn’t like there were actual nukes being dropped in slow motion

[zeroonetwothree]

Collapse by definition is not gradual

[unethical_ban]

This is really avoiding the obvious point being made.

Here's a other analogy to avoid your criticism: if a plane runs out of gas midair, it doesn't immediately crash, but it's going to.

[dwroberts]

Go watch a big chimney stack being demolished. It hangs around in the air for a long time, before it is suddenly gone. But it’s definitely collapsing the whole time.

[JKCalhoun]

"Gradually, then suddenly.”

(Feels like a Hemingway quote fits rather nicely here.)

[jmye]

Ahh, good, parsing words. I can tell you have a lot of useful and interesting things to say.

So tired of people trying to pass off pseudointellectual pedanticism as useful or additive insight.

[mikelitoris]

Buckle down and sort it = wars around the world and mass (and I mean mass) migration

[georgemcbay]

> If the clouds turns out to be a really bad storm, people will buckle down and sort it.

That'd be cool if it were true, but it isn't. The people with the economic and political power to do anything about it are massively profiting off the storm and care more about that than the damage the storm will do.

Why do you think they are all literally building end-times style bunkers these days?

[acron0]

Is global economic collapse not an eschatological scenario?

When you say "everything is still getting better", what do you mean? Because the price of fuel and food, isn't getting better. It seems to be getting worse. Your version of "reality" doesn't seem to reflect the experience of a lot of people.

> people will buckle down and sort it. It's an interesting series of words that don't say a lot. There is much to wonder about.

[roenxi]

> Is global economic collapse not an eschatological scenario?

Not really, no. In this case 20-25% of the world's oil disappearing doesn't sound like it should be an 'everything collapses' scenario, we still have >75% of the oil around and oil isn't the only energy source. Everyone has always seen a "worst economic collapse of my lifetime" and although this one looks like it is going to be unusually horrific it isn't going to cause the end of anything structural unless there are other causes already in place. For example in theory this might be the end of the US military's ability to maintain global order in the same way as the Suiz Crisis humiliated the British empire - it'd be a recognition of realities on the ground rather than the current crisis changing anything.

[lbreakjai]

You're missing that the impact is not evenly distributed. It doesn't mean everyone gets 25% less petrol, tighten the belt a little bit, take one fewer trip to starbucks, and all is well.

It means rich countries get the 75% while the poor countries get nothing and starve. What happens when a nuclear power like India starts to lack food?

[roenxi]

> What happens when a nuclear power like India starts to lack food?

Personally I think that actually seems a bit unlikely. Most of India's energy doesn't come from oil and doesn't go to agriculture. It seems plausible that the global economy will be able to overcome the food and fertiliser issues even in the short term, there is a lot of food out there.

I'm expecting the threat to be more complex economic goods like construction, manufactured goods, leisure and general logistics. I don't want to downplay the risk, famine in India is a scary thought, but I don't really see how we'd get there from closing the Strait of Hormuz without a lot of bad luck. The problem is it is going to materially impoverish a number of people and collapse complex supply chains rather than make it hard to get food to them.

[lbreakjai]

Food quantity has never been the issue. The logistics are. Food is the most direct issue, but "just" the economic turmoil alone is reason enough to worry. No one was starving in the Weimar republic, yet ...

[gm678]

> You’re getting worked up over nothing. Everything is going to be fine. So just relax, okay? You’re really overreacting.

> Trust me, it’s all going to work out perfect. Nothing bad is going to happen. It’s all under control.

> Why do you keep saying these things? I can tell when there’s trouble looming, and I really don’t sense that right now. We’re in control of this situation, and we know what we’re doing. So stop being so pessimistic.

> Look, you’ve been proven wrong, so stop talking. You’ve had your say already. Be quiet, okay? Everything’s fine.

https://theonion.com/this-war-will-destabilize-the-entire-mi...

[crubier]

> If the clouds turns out to be a really bad storm, people will buckle down and sort it.

100% this. People need to understand this.

[bombcar]

The other thing is that it is WAY too easy to distract yourself from your solvable problems by focusing on the big ones - you have to fight that with ferocity.

Why get out of debt? The country is a brazillian trillion in debt we’re doomed.

Why invest for retirement or save? The market is fraud anyway.

Why exercise and lose weight? The planet is doomed anyway.

[t0bia_s]

Why are you in debt? Why you need investment for later? Why are you overweight? It sounds like cause of problems are overlooked.

[t0bia_s]

Just look how you react on news. Those stories are here for purpose. To frightens mind that is easy to manipulate with and accept all kind of fatalistic scenarios. At the end you will just paying more for less.

[JuniperMesos]

How is a global reset going to solve the problem of not enough oil getting exported out of Arabian Gulf oil fields to provide energy to the rest of the world?