[dmichulke]

If I understand correctly, I see all your points as potential rewards.

These rewards are useful to the US if they accomplish regime change to a friendly regime or at least military occupation of a good strip of land.

The article is about how these two preconditions for obtaining the rewards are unlikely to be fulfilled and, at the same time, non-accomplishment might achieve the opposite:

- Iran (and by necessity, other Gulf states if they want to export oil) align more with China

- US-partnership will not provide security (Arab states, South Korea and other allies are now less secure and the US can't protect them)

- US and allies are in a worse position to secure South America

Huge risk with little chances of a reward. That's the article.

Modifying the rewards does not change the game unless the probability of obtaining them increases or that of the risks decreases.