[ifyoubuildit]

"Their only possible reaction would be to bombard troops there, destroying their own export infrastructure in the process."

Right, so if that's their only possible reaction, isn't that a bad thing for everyone? It looks like they've made it clear they're not going down without bringing everyone else with them, and why would they? What options do they have?

[franktankbank]

> they've made it clear they're not going down without bringing everyone else with them

Isn't that exactly what you would say even if you didn't mean it?

[ethbr1]

You'd think everyone would have learned by this point that none of the belligerent major world powers mean what they say anymore.

Definitely not Russia, China, and the US.

They all transparently see diplomacy and messaging around it as a tool of war. Small surprise when others do too.

[ifyoubuildit]

I mean they seem to have made it clear by their actions. They're in an existential situation, so its not like there is any reason to hold anything back.

If your opponent is trying to turn you into Libya, then whatever you do just has to not fail as badly as that for it to be the right move. You basically become a cornered animal.

[ethbr1]

The thing about disintegrating regimes is there is no "they".

There's people with power, looking out for their own self interests. You think after a few more weeks all of the newly promoted Iranian military leadership is going to weigh a few million dollars in personal benefit against the glory of the cause and decide on the latter?

[ifyoubuildit]

OK, so take this back to your boots on kharg island plan, where this "no they" only has the option of bombarding our troops. Are you saying they also have the option of ... Getting a few million dollars in personal benefit somehow?

The only option they have on offer is death, either fighting the us and Israel, or fighting in whatever civil war crops up after. Why would they believe in any negotiations after the last two times?

[ethbr1]

> The only option they have on offer is death, either fighting the us and Israel, or fighting in whatever civil war crops up after. Why would they believe in any negotiations after the last two times?

The writing is on the wall that the US wants to end the war (and Israel won't have a choice but to follow). Which means anyone with military command authority in Iran has leverage to extract concessions from the US.

Do either of us think the current US admin is above causing a few million to appear in a bank account somewhere, in exchange for secret cooperation?

Especially when the calculus is between stick (Israeli assassination) and carrot (money), and that substantial personal wealth means power in any post-war Iranian order. Or living as a wealthy expat as plan B.

The point of regime decapitation, to give the Israeli assassinations (especially of internal security force leaders) their most strategically foresighted interpretation (instead of the more likely opportunistic one), is to shuffle people into power that haven't already made a resist vs cooperate decision.

At some point, everyone cares about their own skin and their future most.

[ifyoubuildit]

> Do either of us think the current US admin is above causing a few million to appear in a bank account somewhere, in exchange for secret cooperation?

> Especially when the calculus is between stick (Israeli assassination) and carrot (money), and that substantial personal wealth means power in any post-war Iranian order. Or living as a wealthy expat as plan B.

No, of course we wouldn't (and I'd say shouldn't) be above that. The question is how that comes to pass.

Imagine you're some sort of Iranian official that actually has some sway in the country.

1) why on earth would you even entertain negotiations, when your enemy repeatedly uses them as cover for sneak attacks?

2) assuming you get past 1), and the us offers you money. If you take it and leave, you don't have any influence in your country anymore anyway, so what have we gained? If you take it and stay, do the people still follow you if you capitulate? And what's to stop Israel from assassinating you anyway, or launching another war 6 months from now?

The only rational move seems to be to establish deterrence by making this thing as painful as possible for everyone involved, and us invading plays right into that.