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by keeda 85 days ago
> To a first approximation, everybody else involved has lost billions.

"Lost" implies they have nothing to show for it. But they do. Depending on who you're looking at, they have data centers, GPUs, as well as billions in revenue and hundreds of millions of users, both rapidly growing. We can't say anything is "lost" because these are investments, and will only be sunk costs if nobody ever makes money.

But people are already making money. The big names are in a growth stage, so their spending is far outpacing their returns, but if you look beyond, people are making a ton of money on AI, which bodes well for these investments. Some data points:

1. AI startups are growing revenue at a record pace, as confirmed by three separate groups adjacent to them -- investors, enterprise purchase decision makers, and Stripe (which processes their payments): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46730182

2. AI is creating a boom in mobile apps, including a surge in revenue -- https://techcrunch.com/2026/01/21/consumers-spent-more-on-mo...

So much that Apple made a billion more just from their App Store cut: https://www.macrumors.com/2026/03/20/apple-made-nearly-900m-...

3. AI agents boosting holiday sales: https://www.salesforce.com/news/stories/2025-holiday-shoppin...

Keep in mind we are only ~3 years since ChatGPT kicked this whole thing off