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by vkou 88 days ago
> The kicker is that this isn't even Trump's war

That's quite possible.

> and he likely lacks the capacity to end it if he wanted to.

Nah, he could end it any time he wants. Iran will stop bombing its neighbors in a week or so, and things will more or less return to the pre-war status quo.

He chooses to not end it, because the one thing that he cannot stand is losing face.
1 comments
standardUser 88 days ago
Iran will not stop harassing the region, and perhaps not even allow the strait to open, if Israel is still bombing them or fighting a proxy war in Lebanon. So Trump can pack up and head back to this side of the planet, having made our country a few trillion dollars poorer in the process, but the war doesn't ends until Iran and Israel decide it ends.
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vkou 88 days ago
> Iran will not stop harassing the region, and perhaps not even allow the strait to open, if Israel is still bombing them or fighting a proxy war in Lebanon.

If Israel is still bombing them? Certainly.

This will put incredible international pressure on Israel to stop. It's one thing when the US wrecks the world's economy, and it's hard to push back on. It's an entirely different thing when a country of 10 million people is wrecking the world's economy. International opinion has been turning against it for years, already.

I do think it's very unlikely to continue the war if the bombing stopped, and only the proxy war continued.

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pjc50 88 days ago
Israel is basically immune to pressure from countries other than the US, and the US won't pressure them because of domestic politics.
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XorNot 88 days ago
People honestly forget that Iranians aren't stupid. Some of them are crazy, but not stupid. Iran has been doing things like saying you're safe in the Strait as long as you trade oil in Yuan, for example. They know exactly why they're doing that.

Now it's not very effective now, but if the US packs up and leaves they can keep doing it. "Trade in Yuan or we drone strike your ships" would lead to every company that operates there doing it provided it actually kept risk and insurance rates down.

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