Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by adriand 86 days ago
Fortunately, fossil fuels are a stable and geopolitically risk-free source of energy.
6 comments

They're a relatively stable and risk-free source of money for a certain kind of politician.

The energy part is incidental.

Is this the biggest Woosh of the year?
Is this comment on purpose? The whooshes are getting hard to track!
This will not be a learned more robustly in the US until one or both of the only two (edit: major) gas turbine manufacturers in the world (GE Vernova, Siemens Energy) suffer a tail risk event causing their failure. Backlog for new gas turbines is ~7 years, as of this comment. Continued production capacity is a function of how fragile those two companies are.

The White House’s Bet on Fossil Fuels Is Already Losing - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-28/white-... | https://archive.today/vpvch - October 28th, 2025

Gas-Turbine Crunch Threatens Demand Bonanza in Asia - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-10-07/gas-tu... | https://archive.today/z4Ixw - October 7th, 2025

AI-Driven Demand for Gas Turbines Risks a New Energy Crunch - https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2025-bottlenecks-gas-turb... | https://archive.today/b8bhn - October 1st, 2025

(think in systems)

Both of those are big wind tubine manufactres as well.
Luckily, the wind futures market is pretty bullish for the foreseeable future
Isn't there Ansaldo Energia too?
Yes, but their production volume is limited (imho) compared to the two companies I mentioned. Good callout regardless. I'll have a post put together to share here enumerating and comparing.

(i track global fossil generation production capacity as a component of tracking the overall rate of global energy transition to clean energy and electrification, but some of my resources are simply an excel spreadsheet)

Hah, that's super interesting. How are we looking? What under served areas are you seeing? Do you post anywhere your numbers?
They are also organic, all-natural, and fat-free! And renewable on geological timescales.
Contrary to windmills, which slows down the rotation of the earth.
Doesn't that depend whether you point them east or west?

Point them north and you'll increase Earth's axial tilt.

I think you just solved both leap seconds and daylight savings time.
I personally would like more hours in the day.
No problem: Just build a subterranean boat and launch a few nukes close to the core to restart rotation.
Won't someone think of the ~children~ birds?!
The US has their own oil fields.

If they can burn down the EU in that ongoing crisis, they don't care.

That's likely the strategy the administration is running.

And clean. Really, really clean. Just look at coal. A no-brainer. Go for it.
You mean "clean coal", right? Of course it's clean, it's right in the name.
People laugh at this, but anthracite genuinely is cleaner than other coal in every regard save CO2 emissions. People just think it's a joke because they've come to believe that CO2 is the only coal emission worth caring about, which definitely isn't true.
The oxymoronic term "clean coal" refers to carbon-capture-and-storage (CCS) technology [0], touted by the fossil fuel industry as a way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and continue employing coal workers.

Thus far, it is incredibly expensive, at a time when solar and wind generation is cost-competitive with fossil-fuel plants which don't employ CCS. It is simply a dead end. You can generate more renewable energy, and store it, for far less than it takes to equip and operate CCS in conjunction with a fossil-fuel-fired plant. Only direct government subsidy makes it viable for a vanishingly small amount of GHG emissions.

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_capture_and_storage

"Clean coal" is like saying "a fast snail". Sure it can be faster than other snails, but even if it's twice as fast as the second fastest snail, it's still a snail and I'll still laugh when an ant runs circles around it.
No, the criticism isn't because people get caught up about CO2 -- it's because "cleaner than other coal" is a very low bar to meet to be calling something "clean" full stop.

Also "clean coal" is not a type of coal being burnt (although that does matter too) but pollution control systems added to coal plants.

Anthracite burns clean enough to use in a pizza oven. If your neighbor told you he was going to install a new furnace and offered you the choice of it burning wood pellets or anthracite, from a smell standpoint you should absolutely choose the anthracite.

Anthracite, in these regards, is very different from bituminous coal.

Considering the mercury and arsenic in all coal, wood is preferred in ovens.
And both are very different from not burning anything.
>Anthracite burns clean enough to use in a pizza oven.

Yeah, so does wood, which is horribly polluting.

The doesn't cause acid rain version is called "clean" and that seems pretty fair to me when the other version causes acid rain.
It is still dirtier than all of the alternatives we have.
The US (with Canada and Mexico) is self-sufficient with fossil fuel energy.
> The US (with Canada and Mexico) is self-sufficient with fossil fuel energy.

Oh boy can't wait for the reenactment of third reich intervening peacefully in czechoslovakia, for their own safety and wellbeing of course, and not at all for the resources they're hoarding, the filthy hoarders.

I do find the slow Sovietization of America funny, both mentally and economically. The year is 2050, autarky on energy has been established, the markets cut off, politics in the hands of erratic and geriatric leaders. Americans proudly drive 30 year old Fords the way people used to drive Ladas, while China exports green energy, cars and infrastructure to the world.
Unfortunately, we share the planet and the atmosphere with it.
If the US taunts someone into a nuclear war, the rest of us get to live but should be investing more in cancer research.
It's awesome the US hasn't destabilized one of those neighbors and alienated the other one by declaring it the prospective 51st state. Soft power really is America's super power.
I’d wager the US is self sufficient also in terms of renewable energies.
But it gets traded globally. That means if the price goes up in Asia, it also goes up in NA.
It doesn't have to be traded globally. The US could ban oil and gas exports, and that would decouple local prices from the global market.
Why the US can't use its own oil: it's the wrong type. https://blog.drillingmaps.com/2025/06/this-is-why-us-cant-us...
Imports into the US will experience inflation regardless. Semiconductor imports from East Asia are one example, since they depend on helium and energy from the Gulf.
tbh I’m kind of surprised the admin hasn’t enacted export tariffs on oil and gas already to take the pressure off car owners.

Wouldn’t do anything to the prices of imported products since the entire intl supply chain would be subject to even higher prices, but would reduce pressure at the pump

Sure, if we build out refining capacity for the next ten years. Then we're golden until we run out of the finite well of combustible dead algae. So if you think we can revitalize American manufacturing and resource processing starting now, and you're okay with those investments being worthless in a few decades, and you don't give a shit about rendering the planet significantly less habitable to human life, then yeah, we're totally self-sufficient with fossil fuels.

Or we could, you know, pull energy out of the air and sun, a strategy which will be viable until our star dies.

Alberta tar sands have hundreds of years worth of reserves. They're also expensive and incredibly dirty to extract and emit significantly more CO2 during processing than a light oil well will. (The tar is usually melted by heating with natural gas).

I'm quite confident cheap renewable alternatives will make the tar sands inviable far before they run out.

Some good news though, with the war in Iran the spiking oil price means that Albertan executives can ramp up operations and stay quite profitable! Push the price to 200/barrel and we'll just strip mine the entire province after airlifting out Calgary and Edmonton.
This assumes that there isn't profound demand destruction caused by the stratospheric energy prices.

Fossil fuels were already an inferior energy source when oil was $60/barrel. Electrification has been moving fast and accelerating, even at the pre-energy crisis prices.

Now? Current events are likely to take fossil fuels out back and give 'em the Old Yeller treatment with surprising speed.

I absolutely agree, _in market driven economies_, fossil fuels are slowly pricing themselves out of relevancy. The issue is that for some reason the US specifically subsidizes their usage keeping them artificially lowly priced.

So, how many billions of newly printed debt is Trump willing to throw at the problem to keep those subsidies up so that he can be sheltered from the scary windmills?

another option is not to shit on all countires who do have resources driving the prices up for everyone.
This is an article about paying private industry to not build wind capacity.
I don't agree with redirecting towards fossil fuels instead of wind power, but its not really paying TotalEnergies "for not building wind capacity", its more like changing what was ordered on behalf of the population: first the wind power capacity was ordered, then it was stalled and blocked, and now this president and TotalEnergies have agreed to change the order to another type of meal (investing in fossil fuel facilities within the US).
The US is unable to implement export controls so consuming less than it creates doesnt mean theres enough since producers will export if international prices are better
Ireland during the famine was self sufficient with food production but that didn't stop people from sending food to the highest bidders abroad.
It didn't look like that at the gas pump today.
Ignoring the part where just running everything off fossil fuel is suicidal for the planet, the US actually isn't self-sufficient with just fossil fuels.

https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/fossil-fuels-fall-be...

Renewables are cheaper to build out, and we're facing a massive energy shortage. We need to be building renewable production as quickly as possible just to keep up with demand.

Insisting that we use obsolete, expensive and dirty technologies while the rest of the planet modernizes is just dumb.