[nclin_]

You're right more self assured than I actually think, but that's my prediction.

I agree, China is not looking to fight and would only fight a defensive war. With how the US attacked Iran first (during negotiations!) + have led escalation patterns (Israel hit Iranian oil infrastructure before the LNG terminal in Qatar was hit), China will be watching very closely.

The US have already cut off Chinese oil from Venezuela, and are now disrupting the flow from Iran. This is legible as a strategy to deprive China of resources.

I have built this tool* over the last few weeks which collates, maps and timelines reports, the pattern of American and Israeli escalation is very clear (also look at the Israeli domestic expansion into the west bank while this is all going on!).

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* https://conflictintelligence.ai/ running cheap on deepseek at the moment as a proof of concept but the extraction and synthesis is performing well :)