[kurthr]

It looks like a lot of them are missing something big. I'd think the two big ones are the evaporative cooling as you pour into the cup, and heating up the cup (by convection) itself. The convective cooling to the air is tertiary, but important (and conduction of the mug to the table probably isn't completely negligible). If there's only one exponential, they're definitely doing something wrong.

I'd like to see a sensitivity study to see how much those terms would need to be changed to match within a few %. Exponentials are really tweaky!

[andai]

Is that what that first drop is? The cold cup stealing heat from the coffee?

[kadoban]

It's a mix of course, but I think it should be mainly that and evaporative cooling. Evap is _very_ effective but will fall off rapidly as you get away from boiling. The conduction into the mug will depend a lot on the mug material but will slow down a lot as the mug approaches the water temperature.

I'd be very interested in seeing separate graphs for each major component and how they add up to the total. Even asking the LLMs to separate it out might improve some of their results, would be interesting to try that too.

[kurthr]

Yes, since they didn't explicitly list the evaporative cooling when the coffee was poured into the cup, I suspect it was not included (as if the coffee started in the cup). That means that the starting temperature is off and screws up all the other calculations.

The evaporative cooling as you pour into the cup is when the coffee is at the highest temperature and has the most surface area even though it only takes a few seconds. One could test this either by including it explicitly in the requested calculation, or by putting the fill spout directly at the bottom of the cup when filling.