[fleabitdev]

As I understand it, very small neural networks have already been incorporated into both VVC and AV2 for intra prediction. You're correct that this strategy is limited by decoding performance, especially when predicting large blocks.

In general, I'm pessimistic about prediction-and-residuals strategies for lossy compression. They tend to amplify noise; they create data dependencies, which interfere with parallel decoding; they require non-local optimisation in the encoder; really good prediction involves expensive analysis of a large number of decoded pixels; and it all feels theoretically unsound (because predictors usually produce just one value, rather than a probability distribution).

I'm more optimistic about lossy image codecs based on explicitly-coded summary statistics, with very little prediction. That approach worked well for lossy JPEG XL.