[toomuchtodo]

It’s just pulling forward future gains while shrinking the time horizon, if the world speeds the transition to renewables and electrification from this. Short term gain for faster irrelevance.

Oil to $200/barrel please, as long as possible, same with LNG.

Edit: Iran attack wipes out 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity for up to five years, QatarEnergy CEO says - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2026/03/19/iran-attack-... - March 19th, 2026

Looks like the global clean energy transition will be getting back up to speed.

[graemep]

Businesses are short termist these days. They will be happy to pull forward gains. Shareholder value, right?

[toomuchtodo]

Certainly, but you can solve for that with windfall taxes or nationalizing the oil industry in your jurisdiction, if there is the will. Based on all available evidence, the will does not exist.

Broadly speaking, the overall system dependent on energy must adapt or die. The capital exists to decarbonize rapidly. How hard the arm must be twisted is the natural experiment to observe. In the meantime, all critical fossil assets are legitimate targets in the operating environment.

These are all choices. If you are unhappy with the outcomes of choices you have the authority to make, make better choices.

[anonymars]

Heh, depends on who's nationalizing the oil industry. Isn't that the common thread for the present-day situations of Venezuela, Iran, and Cuba?

[chii]

It will take longer than the duration of the war to realistically transition to renewables in any quantity that truly matters.

So the oil companies are happy because this temporarily brought forward future demand and thus profit, as well as expend a bunch of money/resources from competitors of oil which predicates a high price per barrel to make financial sense. If/when oil prices drop back down, these renewable investments might not compete.

To truly transition over will mean doing it with the world kicking and screaming imho. It cannot be made smooth.

[markus_zhang]

If you tell me I can make 10 million bucks this year, with the penalty of not making anything for the rest of my life, I guess I don’t mind?

[toomuchtodo]

Would you have made it anyway? Can we stop you? Does it cause a negative externality that will be more rapidly diminished if you pull forward this gain? Consider it a premium paid by fossil fuel consumers to encourage a more rapid transition from fossil fuels by pushing pain into the energy market for the next half decade.

Congrats to those who won the lotto, enjoy your luck.

[markus_zhang]

Eh, definitely not me, still a salary slave. But yeah kudos to whoever won the oil lottery.