[estearum]

I mean... that is pretty much what we're seeing:

Austin new housing starts (approx per month):

2019: 1416

2020: 1504

2021: 1495

2022: 2083

2023: 1415

2024: 916

2025: 900

2026: 481

The problem here is that the market obviously does not have perfect information, limited mechanisms to coordinate, and significant lead time. It seems pretty much baked in at this point that many of the projects currently underway will complete into a negative market and (assuming Austin remains somewhat desirable) a whole lot of developers will be wiped out. This will stop development until prices rise again, probably back to a level where housing is quite expensive again relative to local wages.