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by CBLT 85 days ago
People are quick to point out that induced demand exists - especially people that aren't fond of change.

Very broadly speaking, people mis-estimate effect sizes in economics by orders of magnitude. Induced demand is just their foothold to claim an effect exists, before they go about claiming the effect size they want to see.

2 comments

How would induced demand work for housing? I understand it for say transit use or car travel or like Facebook visits, but when there's twice as much housing do I... buy another home? Buying extra houses as "an investment" in a culture that is hell bent on depreciating my investment by building more housing is one of those "r/WallStBets" crazy plays, if I'm wrong I will lose my shirt and everybody will laugh at me.

Also, even if that were a problem, which seems dubious, you can regulate it. Massive tax hikes for second and subsequent homes are a thing in some places.

I love induced demand. I'm going to use it to get rich - buy up some abandoned town somewhere, and then pay to run a 100 lane superhighway to it; induced demand means the town will fill up instantly and be hugely valuable!
It doesn’t work unless there is currently repressed demand for living in that abandoned town because not enough housing or other factors.

No one is complaining about a housing shortage today in buffalo which used to have twice as much housing stock as it does today, because the demand simply isn’t there now.

Exactly - induced demand is just a misnomer/misunderstanding. "Pent-up demand" would be a much better way to explain it - but that would reveal that at some point the demand ceases; even SF has some limit - once all 12 billion people live there, demand will level off.
Good analogy. I've always considered induced demand a bit of a fantasy.

New businesses the sprout up that market themselves certainly induce a bit of demand, but more lanes and stoplights doesn't exactly motivate people to want to go somewhere.