[RcouF1uZ4gsC]

And if a result is surprising to you, you should trust it less and look into it more deeply.

And if you do so, one of two good outcomes will hopefully happen:

1. You find the result is bogus

2. You learn something new and update your internal model of the world.

[thephyber]

This ignores a huge blind spot that humans have: confirmation bias.

There is no accurate heuristic which is a good short.