[muggermuch]

Hmmm, good question. I think one interesting incident for us was when we saw scenario probabilities being updated near last Friday EOD for the US-Iran conflict, biased towards further kinetic action by the US around Kharg island (?). This was basically captured from changes in odds for Polymarket events that the system was tracking. The news came in a few minutes later, post equity market closing.

[chairmansteve]

So someone monitoring Polymarket could have reached the same conclusion?

But Soros can process many more inputs than a human analyst?

Polymarket seems like a very good input, because of the probable insider trading. What other inputs do you use?

[muggermuch]

> So someone monitoring Polymarket could have reached the same conclusion?

Maybe? If they are professionally trading prediction markets, I'm pretty sure that would be the case. Polymarket especially is a great source of insider traded information, as you pointed out.

We do near realtime tracking of most major markets, plus X accounts that Soros identifies as being important. The system also composes search queries per analysis, along with frequency of scanning, and that's run as requested. (We use a mix of Perplexity and other smaller search providers, along with Exa via OpenRouter's integration.)

Hope this helps! Thanks for your questions!

[chairmansteve]

Other inputs might be direct statements from leaders involved in the conflict, especially Trump. Also maybe bond market and oil market price movements?

Then you would want to generate an alert when you an actionable prediction. You don't want the user to have to prompt the AI. It needs to be running in the background, having been prompted on the scenarios to monitor?

[muggermuch]

Exactly! That's how it works - the static demo is just that, static.

Would love to onboard you for the full thing if you'd like! Just LMK ([e-mail]) or add your info on the site