[oceanplexian]

> They were thus more likely to be in an economic position where they felt comfortable having another child.

Just a reminder that if you pull up a chart of countries with the highest birth rates, they all have poor economic conditions. If the theory that a better economy correlates with more babies then countries like South Korea would have the world's highest birth rate.

[toomuchtodo]

There is evidence that improved economic conditions and flexible work arrangements increase fertility in meaningful amounts. Is it enough to achieve 2.1 replacement rate? It isn't, but the evidence is robust that wealthier people do have higher fertility in some circumstances.

TLDR Fertility declines as countries urbanize, income rises, and women are educated and empowered to make more affirmed fertility choices, but also slightly increases when prospective parents feel economically secure enough to have a child, or more children (within some intent or desire band).

Higher incomes are increasingly associated with higher fertility: Evidence from the Netherlands, 2008–2022 - https://www.demographic-research.org/articles/volume/51/26 | https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2024.51.26 - October 8th, 2024

More Babies For the Rich? The Relationship Between Status and Children Is Changing - https://ifstudies.org/blog/more-babies-for-the-rich-the-rela... - March 18th, 2024

> Yet the trend at the aggregate level of the whole country disguises trends that are emerging among individuals in these countries. In my new book, coauthored with Martin Fieder and Susanne Huber, Not So Weird After All: The Changing Relationship between Status and Fertility, we document that while in much of the twentieth century it was poor people in countries such as the United States who had more children than richer people, there is a new emerging trend where better-off men and women are more likely to have children than less well-off men and women.

[bombcar]

I suspect that if you have a situation where people's "situation" (to use the word twice) doesn't change much from year to year but they feel they're slipping behind/worse (e.g, inflation but everything else is basically the same) - you'll find a decline in the birthrate.

If you have a situation where suddenly your life improves noticeably, birthrates will rise - even if the first group is always better off than the second. It's relative.

So WFH may have contributed to a birth rate rise simply because people felt more secure and more in control (or better) than they did before.

[toomuchtodo]

Strongly agree, the sentiment must be of a longer term improvement, not a temporary one. “Applied hope” if you will. The hope must be "sticky."

[pllbnk]

Correlation is not causation. A huge part of this high birth rate is that in these poor countries people leave in rural areas, farming or doing similar work, this essentially “working from home”. They can have many children because they stay close with their families and also having more children is a survival strategy.