[generic92034]

Very bold words. I am not even convinced the USA will stay relevant on the world stage, in the long run. Cutting ties hurts, but the process is underway. Also, "vassalage" is a bold word, if the US cannot make the EU give up Greenland or come running to help them in the Strait of Hormuz (there are also other examples). It is almost as if European politicians are playing it smart.

[alephnerd]

And my question is - are you fine sacrificing Ukraine in return for a Russian and Chinese military umbrella? This is the hard requirement for China to engage with the EU [0].

The answer in Poland, the Baltics, Czechia, and Finland is NO and that Russia is worse and that Ukraine must be supported, and will back the US no matter how transactional we become.

The answer in Hungary, Slovakia, and Belgium [1] is YES and that sacrificing Ukraine for Russia is acceptable.

[0] - https://scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3316875/china-...

[1] - https://www.ft.com/content/4ce01938-a671-4433-83a7-dada2b3ba...

[generic92034]

The question is if the Chinese support for Russia can be broken, by economical incentive or threat.

But anyway, over short or long the EU needs to build its own military to a strength it can at least work as a strong deterrence for aggressors.

[alephnerd]

> if the Chinese support for Russia can be broken, by economical incentive...

China is not interested in breaking with Russia.

Russia helps China put pressure on Japan [0], helps China put pressure on South Korea [1], allows China to expand it's influence in Central Asia [2], acts as a backchannel for China-India diplomatic normalization [3], gives China the ability to access ONG without dealing with Hormuz or Malaccas [4], and allows China to run the Chongqing-Xinjiang-Europe railway [5] which continues to supply Europe with no sanctions despite the ongoing war in Ukraine.

On the other hand, the EU is tariffing Chinese goods [6]; signing FTAs with Chinese rivals like India [7], Japan [8], and South Korea [9]; and signing defense pacts with Japan [10], South Korea [11], and India [12] while allowing them to participate in ReArm Europe 2030.

Additionally, China-EU trade only represents a little over 10% of all Chinese trade [13], and is easily replaceable with expanded trade with ASEAN, Japan, South Korea, and India.

China views Russia the same way America views the EU - a weak junior partner who can be bullied. The US is somewhat trying to pull Russia to our side, and China is somewhat trying to pull the EU to their side, but the reality is both the US and China view the EU and Russia as junior partners.

> the Chinese support for Russia can be broken, by ... threat

What threat can the EU give to China? Chinese foreign policy already views the EU as sanctimonious [14], weak [15], and declining [16].

> over short or long the EU needs to build its own military to a strength it can at least work as a strong deterrence for aggressors

Yep.

But that will takes decades, which is why the US and China can both bully the EU with complete impunity today.

Heck, both China [17] and the US under Trump [18] are supporting Viktor Orban because he is a great Trojan horse.

Whenever either the US or China feels the EU is leaning towards one at the expense of the other, they then start breaking EU institutions as a result.

THIS is the world the EU exists in today.

[0] - https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russian-b...

[1] - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqxq38028djo

[2] - https://www.reuters.com/world/china-looks-strengthen-ties-ru...

[3] - https://eastasiaforum.org/2020/10/23/how-russia-emerged-as-k...

[4] - https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3345920/m...

[5] - https://carnegie.ru/commentary/?fa=64555

[6] - https://www.ft.com/content/eb677cb3-f86c-42de-b819-277bcb042...

[7] - https://commission.europa.eu/topics/trade/eu-india-trade-agr...

[8] - https://trade.ec.europa.eu/access-to-markets/en/content/eu-j...

[9] - https://trade.ec.europa.eu/access-to-markets/en/content/eu-s...

[10] - https://www.mofa.go.jp/press/release/pressite_000001_00703.h...

[11] - https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/security-and-defence-partner...

[12] - https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/security-and-defence-eu-and-...

[13] - http://www.customs.gov.cn/customs/2025-12/14/article_2026011...

[14] - https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202603/1356666.shtml

[15] - https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202603/16/WS69b7f2e2a310d686...

[16] - https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202512/22/WS69488270a310d686...

[17] - https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202405/10/content_WS663d3b83...

[18] - https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/20...

[generic92034]

You have a very static view there. In my estimation the US is on the way down, at least economically/financially. Their internal stability is already somewhat broken. It will be hard to continue to project power without real allies and the internal issues they have and will have.

So, if the EU is so much inferior, why did they not buckle in the Greenland issue, but Trump was called back by his puppeteers? Why can they say "no" to supporting the US and Israel against Iran? And if they wanted the EU leaders could go further and match tariffs one by one and nothing serious would happen. The picture you are painting does not account for the facts. The relationship is not between equals but lord and vassal is also not a good fit.

I am not sure about the trade figures in your link [13]. It does not open for me. I seem to recall a significantly higher export volume going to Europe. But anyway, China is going to have their own internal issues with an aging populace, an end to strong economical growth and ever-growing social inequality. They are also too rational (compared to the US) to disrupt good business by mutual bullying (at least overtly and systematically).

[frm88]

What threat can the EU give to China? Chinese foreign policy already views the EU as sanctimonious [14], weak [15], and declining [16].

15 is an opinion piece written by a failed politician from Kyrgyzstan for China Daily and 16 is another opinion piece written by a right-wing politician from Slovakia. Neither represent Chinese opinions. 14 doesn't open for me.

[alephnerd]

The message matters less than the messenger - China Daily is the English language newspaper of the CCP's Propaganda Department and the Global Times is the English language newspaper of the CCP's Central Committee.

The fact that the mouthpieces of two of the CCP's most important committees are constantly publishing content that is dismissive of the EU highlights how China's leadership actually views Europe.

Europeans really need to get it in their head that both the US and China look at the EU dismissively and as a junior partner. Neither the US nor China is interested in a relationship of equals with the EU.

[raven12345]

good point

[raven12345]

It might seem strange, but China hopes for a Russian victory, but will not support or oppose a Russian occupation of Ukraine.