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by malfist 93 days ago
Why would anybody make a bet if they don't know the odds or payout?
4 comments

A lot of people habitually make bets out of addiction without thinking carefully about the expected payoff.
That's how pari mutuel betting works; the odds are set by the bettors betting and unknown until the book closes.

That's in fact the entire argument behind Kalshi: the betting is the means of odds discovery.

One reason could be to correct uncalibrated markets. This only works if your intuition is better than the market's current intuition. If a big whale with a big idea makes a big splash, you can profit off of the instability by gently betting against them. This doesn't require you to have any particular knowledge.
Slot machines are popular for a reason. Most folks playing them don’t know or care about the odds.