[sarchertech]

>Sounds like influencer nonsense to me. Touch grass.

I don't even know what this means.

The worst unemployment during the Weimar Republic was 25-30%. Unemployment in the Great Depression peaked at 25%.

So yeah if we get to 45% unemployment and those are the highest paying jobs on average then yeah it's gonna be bad. Then you add in second order effects where none of those people have the money to pay the other 55% who are still employed.

We might get to a UBI relatively quickly and peacefully. But I'm not betting on it.

>finally go through some things just like the aristocracy in France once did.

Yeah that's probably the most likely scenario, but that quickly devolved into a death and imprisonment for far more than the aristocrats and eventually ended with Napoleon trying to take over Europe and millions of deaths overall.

The world didn't literally end, but it was 40 years of war, famine, disease, and death, and not a lot of time to think about starting businesses with your laptop.

[LogicFailsMe]

And the dark ages lasted a millennium. Sounds like quite an improvement on that. And if America didn't want a society hellbent on living the worst possible timeline, why did it re-elect President Voldemaga and give him the football? And then, even when he breaks nearly every political promise, his support remains better than his predecessor? Anyway, I think the richest ~1135 Americans won't let you starve, but they'll be happy to watch you die young of things that had stopped killing people for quite some time whilst they skim all the cream. And that seems to be what the plurality wants or they'd vote differently.

The good news is that America is ~5% of the world. And the more we keep punching ourselves in the face, the better the chance someone else pulls ahead. But still, we have nukes, so we're still the town bully for the immediate future.

[sarchertech]

What are you even arguing about? I have absolutely no idea where you are going with this.

[LogicFailsMe]

Yeah I figured that. You think society is going to collapse because of AI. I don't. But I do think that stupid narrative is prevalent in the media right now and the C-suite happily proclaiming they're going to lay people off and replace them with AI got the ball rolling in the first place. Now it has momentum of its own with lunatics like Eliezer Yudkowsky once again getting taken seriously.

Fortunately, the other 95% of humanity is far less doomer about their prospects. So if America wants to be the new neanderthals, they'll be happy to be the new cro magnons.

[sarchertech]

I don't think society is going to collapse because of AI because I don't think the current architectures have any chance of becoming AGI. I think that if AGI is even something we're capable of it's very far off.

I think that if CEOs can replace us soon, it's because AGI got here much sooner than I predicted. And if that happens we have 2 options Mad Max and Star Trek and Mad Max is the more likely of the 2.

[LogicFailsMe]

What's with all the catastrophic thinking then? Mad Max? Collapse of Society because 45% unemployment? I really hate people on principle but I have more faith in them looking out for their own self interest than you do apparently. Mad Max specifically requires a ridiculous amount of intact infrastructure for all the gasoline (you know gasoline goes bad in 3-6 months? Yeah didn't think so), manufacturing for all the parts for all those crazy custom build road warrior wagons, and ranches of livestock for all the leather for all the cool outfits (and with all that cow, no one needs to starve but oh the infrastructure needed to keep the cows fed).

If doom porn is your thing, try watching Threads or The Day After, especially Threads. That said, I don't think Star Trek is possible, maybe The Expanse but more likely we run out of cheap energy before we get off world.

As for the AGI, it all depends on your definition. We're already at Amazon IC1/IC2 coding performance with these agents (I speak from experience previously managing them). If we get to IC3, one person will be able to build a $1B company and run it or sell it. If you're a purist like me and insist we stick to douchebag racist Nick Bostrom's superintelligence definition of AGI, then we agree. But I expect 24/7 IC3 level engineering as a service for $200/month to be more than enough and I think that's a year or two away. And you can either prepare for that or scream how the sky is falling, your choice.

[sarchertech]

>Mad Max specifically requires a ridiculous amount of intact infrastructure for all the gasoline (you know gasoline goes bad in 3-6 months? Yeah didn't think so)

Is this a joke or do you have a learning disability?

>But I expect 24/7 IC3 level engineering as a service for $200/month to be more than enough and I think that's a year or two away. And you can either prepare for that or scream how the sky is falling, your choice.

Or I could do neither and write you off as a gasbag who doesn't know what he's talking about like all the other ex-amazon management I've had the pleasure to work with over the years.