[pindab0ter]

I think time and time again that incentives are most important in determining how a market and by extension a society behaves. These prediction markets incentivize the absolute worst in humanity.

These markets allow you to bet on when the invasion of a foreign country or the demise of a person happens. There comes a point where one bets against someone to die and you will see themselves incentivized to make that happen.

[scoofy]

>These prediction markets incentivize the absolute worst in humanity.

Just call it gambling. They aren't "prediction markets," they're just gambling. Gambling incentivizes the absolute worst in humanity.

[fritzo]

We're not talking about gambling-as-addiction. We're talking about gambling as big players paying participants to throw fights, paying referees to call shots, and the players are the real world and the referees are journalists.

[scoofy]

I agree.

[fritzo]

Just checking :) Didn't want to confuse two totally different equally compelling reasons to ban prediction markets

[trashb]

> We're not talking about gambling-as-addiction.

What makes you think this is not "gambling-as-addiction"?

It seems to me that these players, big or small, either have too much skin in the game or are compulsive gambling. To me the threats only make sense in that context.

[arcticfox]

I used to be pro-betting legalization and now I see the light. It is a corrosive influence On everything it touches. I hope there's another opportunity to put the genie back in the bottle.

[cybernoodles]

I feel like we need a new word for this because it is far worse than gambling when you can effectively put a hit on someone.

[Invictus0]

That's fundamentally wrong

[scoofy]

>That's fundamentally wrong

If you have an argument, please share it. If you don't, please don't waste everyone's time.

[Invictus0]

if you can't tell the difference between a game of pure chance and predicting real world events then there is simply nothing to say

[scoofy]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fooled_by_Randomness

[Dylan16807]

Predicting real events is significantly random which makes it like gambling, but the ability to influence events makes it unlike gambling.

Just calling it gambling emphasizes the former problem while dismissing the latter problem.

[fc417fc802]

I can tell the difference (at least I think) but I have no idea what your point is.

[Invictus0]

prediction markets are not pure gambling just as investing in stocks is not gambling.

[bagacrap]

Technically you can't bet on the demise of a person, at least in the US, as participants recently discovered when the previous supreme leader of Iran was killed and their "leadership change" bet did not pay out.

[ptsneves]

This is true for Kalshi but not for Polymarket. Also Kalshi voided the bet and it got sued. By the way prediction markets are commodity securities where Matt Levine mentioned it should not allow death contracts. Here we are though..

[loeg]

Kalshi doesn't pay out for demise of a person (though, arguably inconsistently[1]); Polymarket does (probably in violation of US regulation, but there are no rules anymore).

[1]: For example, they did pay out on a bet over whether Jimmy Carter would attend Trump's 2025 inauguration; he didn't, at least in part because he was dead.

[fer]

Polymarket doesn't operate in the US.

https://docs.polymarket.com/api-reference/geoblock

[loeg]

Polymarket is headquartered in NYC; it's a US company; it has many US customers, and it knows that, even if it did a wink-wink dance "disallowing" that prior to 2024. Since then, it has explicitly expanded into the US market[1]. It is unambiguously subject to US regulations (if we had a regulator who chose to enforce those regulations).

[1]: "Following the end of the investigations, Polymarket announced the acquisition of QCEX, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, for $112 million. The acquisition allowed Polymarket to legally operate within the United States under regulatory compliance. The company received an Amended Order of Designation from the CFTC in November 2025 and began actively expanding in the United States market."

https://www.axios.com/2025/07/21/prediction-market-polymarke...

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/polymarket-receives...

[noitpmeder]

As I understand it they operate as two separate entities -- polymarket US and polymarket INTL.

[newswasboring]

Yeah but we can see right through all that lawyer bullshit right? Gambling markets like polymarket are morally corrupt and we having given them too much space in our society already.

[thrance]

There are bets like "X out of function by april" which are functionally equivalent to betting on their demise.

[impjohn]

Then this person better bet their entire life savings on them dying, since it would reduce incentive (profit). Crazy thought experiment, gave me lots to think about