[chrisoverzero]

> “X has lasted a long time so it will last more” is so obviously wrong.

Smarter people than you and I have thought about this problem and come to the opposite conclusion: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect

[lucianbr]

> is a theorized phenomenon

I wonder why they put that "theorized" word in there. It would be so much easier to say "it is a phenomenon". Only that sentence would not be true now would it?

Come on. The wiki article just connects a name to an explanation, does not prove or even claim the effect is real.